The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted. Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure has come under repeated attack. Tankers continue to sail through one of the world’s most dangerous waterways under military escort, while governments are drawing down strategic oil reserves at the fastest pace in decades.

Under those conditions, many expected oil to be well above $100 per barrel.

Instead, Brent crude was trading around $90 on July 30, while West Texas Intermediate remained below $84. Prices are significantly higher than they were a month ago, but they remain far below the levels many predicted when the conflict escalated.

The reason is not that the disruption has been minor. It is that several emergency measures have replaced enough lost supply to prevent a full scale supply shock from reaching the market.

Military Escorts Are Keeping Oil Moving

The most important factor has been the U.S. military operation inside the Strait of Hormuz.

According to U.S. Central Command, American forces have helped approximately 1,000 vessels carrying 500 million barrels of crude transit the Strait since early May under Operation Project Freedom. Spread across approximately 86 days, that equals an average of about 5.8 million barrels of crude per day continuing to reach global markets under U.S. protection.

Before the conflict, roughly 15 million barrels of crude and condensate passed through Hormuz every day, while total petroleum flows approached 21 million barrels daily. The volume protected by CENTCOM therefore represents almost 40% of prewar crude flows through the Strait.

That does not mean Hormuz is operating normally. Independent shipping trackers continue to report substantially lower tanker traffic than before the war, and some vessels are likely transiting with AIS transponders turned off. Even so, millions of barrels continue reaching customers instead of remaining trapped inside the Gulf, preventing an even larger disruption.

Pipelines Are Absorbing Part of the Shock

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates possess the only major export pipelines capable of bypassing Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline carries crude from the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while the UAE’s Habshan Fujairah pipeline delivers oil directly to the Gulf of Oman. Together, the International Energy Agency estimates they can reroute between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day under current conditions.

Those pipelines have become one of the world’s most valuable pieces of energy infrastructure.

Their limits are becoming increasingly apparent. Oil arriving at Yanbu must still transit the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks continue threatening commercial shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure. At the same time, producers including Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain remain heavily dependent on Hormuz because they lack meaningful alternative export routes.

The pipelines reduce the pressure on Hormuz, but they cannot replace it.

Governments Are Using Their Emergency Stockpiles

Another major reason prices have remained below $100 is the unprecedented release of strategic oil reserves.

The International Energy Agency approved a coordinated release of 400 million barrels after the conflict escalated, with the United States committing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Those emergency barrels continue entering global markets, helping refiners replace part of the missing Gulf supply without aggressively bidding up prices.

The release has bought valuable time, but it is not a permanent solution. Every barrel sold today is one that cannot be sold again tomorrow. U.S. strategic reserves have already fallen to their lowest levels in decades, leaving governments with progressively less flexibility if the conflict continues or expands.

Supply Has Increased While Demand Has Fallen

The market has also benefited from additional production outside the Gulf.

U.S. oil production remains near record highs, while Venezuela has substantially increased exports following political changes earlier this year. Brazil and Guyana continue adding new production, contributing additional barrels at a time when every cargo matters.

Those producers cannot replace Gulf exports on their own, but together they have reduced the size of the supply gap.

Demand has also weakened.

China, the world’s largest crude importer, has sharply reduced purchases compared with prewar levels. Slower industrial activity, weaker economic growth and high energy prices have lowered the number of barrels the global economy currently requires. That reduction in demand has become one of the largest reasons oil has not experienced another dramatic spike.

Ironically, weaker economic activity is now doing almost as much to stabilize prices as additional supply.

Every Buffer Is Working (for now)

Oil remains below $100 because several emergency measures are working at the same time. Military escorts continue moving millions of barrels through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are rerouting additional exports through pipelines. Strategic reserves are supplying extra crude to the market, while higher production outside the Gulf and weaker Chinese demand have eased some of the pressure.

None of those measures has solved the disruption on its own. Together, however, they have replaced enough lost supply to keep global markets relatively balanced, even as fighting continues across the region.

For now, the strategy appears to be working. Oil prices remain elevated, but they have stayed well below the levels many feared when the conflict began. Whether that continues will depend on the security of those alternative routes, the pace of strategic reserve releases, and the course of the war itself.