Israel has moved its military to the highest state of readiness since the fighting resumed, but the decision on whether the region enters another major phase of the war may not be made in Jerusalem.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to convene the restricted security cabinet on Friday, followed by the full security cabinet on Sunday. Defense Minister Israel Katz has already held consultations with the IDF Chief of Staff, the commander of the Israeli Air Force, senior intelligence officials and Home Front Command.
Despite that posture, Home Front Command has not changed a single instruction for civilians, no nationwide order has been issued to open public shelters, and the municipalities that have opened shelters in recent days did so on their own initiative.
Senior Israeli officials told Ynet the military is at “maximum alert and maximum readiness.” When asked why, their answer was not Iran. “We are preparing for escalation because Trump is escalating,” one official said. “We are waiting to see what he wants and what he decides.”
Israel would rather respond than strike first
According to Ynet, Western intelligence agencies assess that Iran may attempt to draw Israel directly into the conflict by launching the next strike itself.
The report does not identify the intelligence services involved or disclose the intelligence behind the assessment. It reflects an assessment of Iranian intentions rather than evidence that preparation for an attack has already been detected.
Israeli officials believe the Islamic regime sees several potential advantages.
Jerusalem has shown little interest in reopening a full-scale war. Tehran may also believe differences between Israel and the United States can be exploited politically, while continuing to seek revenge for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Some assessments also suggest Iranian leaders believe the approaching U.S. elections could limit Washington’s willingness to sustain another prolonged regional conflict.
One Israeli official summarized Israel’s thinking more bluntly. “If the Iranians attack us, that is something else. It is much easier from every perspective, because then you enter the fighting.” Following Thursday’s security meeting, Katz warned that Israel is prepared for every possibility and that Iran would suffer a crushing blow if it attacks.
The war has stayed away from Israel
For nearly two weeks, Iran has directed most of its retaliation toward American forces, Gulf states and Jordan rather than Israel.
That has allowed Israel to remain outside the direct exchange of fire while the United States expanded its military campaign.
Pressure is now building elsewhere.
Houthi attacks against Saudi shipping have resumed in the Red Sea, while Reuters reported Iranian officials discussed using the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Insurance costs for ships operating in the region have surged as commercial traffic continues to decline.
A broader maritime crisis could force Washington to respond long before Israel becomes directly involved.
Trump holds the initiative
President Trump said Thursday he is considering what could become the largest round of strikes since the campaign began.
He told Axios he is close to making a decision while repeating that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon under his administration.
Two U.S. officials, however, told Axios no military order has been issued and no final decision has been made.
Trump has used similar public messaging before major military operations. In June 2025, he publicly said he would decide within two weeks before American B-2 bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities roughly two days later.
Whether that pattern repeats remains unclear.
Watching the Military buildup
The last 24 hours offer a clear picture of where this is heading.
The U.S. Air Force is moving a massive amount of aircraft and military equipment toward the Middle East. Airlifters continue arriving across the region as additional equipment and personnel are positioned closer to potential operating areas.
Preparations are clearly underway if the order is given.
Israel has moved to maximum military readiness without changing civilian guidance.
The pace of U.S. military deployments and Israel’s messaging suggest another heavy round of operations is becoming increasingly likely.
Whether it happens next will be decided in Washington or Tehran, not Jerusalem.
(Thank you for your feedback on yesterday’s article, I read each one - Jay)