President Donald Trump has turned the proposed U.S. civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia into a broader geopolitical bargain, making approval contingent on 2 demands Riyadh has resisted for years: abandoning uranium enrichment and joining the Abraham Accords.

The announcement came less than 24 hours after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement and a bilateral safeguards arrangement. What began as a technical energy agreement is now tied directly to the future of Saudi Israeli normalization.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said it will not normalize relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state. Trump’s announcement leaves Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman balancing that position against one of the kingdom’s most important strategic projects.

Trump closed the enrichment question

In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump said the agreement would be limited to civilian nuclear power. “The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) being made between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which pertains only to non military use… will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords.” The statement marks a sharp shift from earlier reporting surrounding the negotiations. Before the agreement was signed, officials familiar with the talks described a framework that could eventually have allowed Saudi Arabia to develop an enrichment capability following a joint U.S. Saudi feasibility study.

Trump’s statement closes that option.

Instead, the U.S. is returning to the model established with the United Arab Emirates in 2009, where Abu Dhabi accepted civilian nuclear cooperation while permanently renouncing uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing.

Uranium enrichment has always been the central issue. The same centrifuges used to produce fuel for civilian reactors can also produce weapons grade uranium if a government later decides to pursue nuclear weapons. For years, U.S. and Israeli officials have argued that preventing new enrichment programs in the Middle East is one of the region’s most important nonproliferation safeguards.

Saudi Arabia has consistently argued that its nuclear program is intended to support electricity generation, desalination and the broader Vision 2030 economic program. Riyadh has also sought the right to develop parts of the nuclear fuel cycle inside the kingdom, a position that complicated negotiations with successive U.S. administrations.

Israel sees a diplomatic opening

Jerusalem quickly welcomed Trump’s announcement.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said the joint military campaign against the Islamic regime and Israel’s dismantling of its proxy network had created an opportunity to expand regional peace. “The joint military action between the United States and Israel against the murderous regime in Tehran, alongside Israel’s dismantling of Iran’s terror axis, has created an opportunity to expand the circle of peace.” The statement added that Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords would represent “a historic leap forward for peace in the Middle East” and repeated Trump’s “peace through strength” message.

Israeli governments have long viewed Saudi normalization as the most consequential expansion of the Abraham Accords. As the custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites and one of the Arab world’s leading powers, Saudi Arabia would give the agreement far greater regional weight than previous normalization deals with the UAE, Bahrain or Morocco.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in 2018 that Saudi Arabia would pursue a nuclear weapon if the Islamic regime acquired one. That statement has shaped Israeli and U.S. security assessments ever since, particularly as Riyadh continued seeking domestic enrichment rights.

Trump’s proposal links those issues together. Before Saudi Arabia can receive American civilian nuclear technology, it would have to recognize Israel and permanently abandon uranium enrichment.

The decision now rests with MBS

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stated that it will not normalize relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state. That position has remained unchanged throughout the Gaza war and has been reaffirmed by senior Saudi officials.

Trump’s announcement leaves Mohammed bin Salman with little room to preserve both positions.

Under Trump’s proposal, normalization comes first. Without it, there is no U.S. nuclear agreement.

Accepting those terms would require Riyadh to alter one of its central diplomatic positions or secure concessions that have so far remained out of reach. Rejecting them could delay Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear ambitions and one of the flagship projects tied to Vision 2030.

Congress is unlikely to be the biggest obstacle. Lawmakers from both parties have long opposed allowing Saudi enrichment, making that part of Trump’s proposal politically easier than the diplomatic conditions attached to it.

The next move now belongs to Riyadh. Whether Mohammed bin Salman changes Saudi Arabia’s position on normalization, or asks the U.S. to change its own, will determine whether this agreement becomes a cornerstone of a new regional order or another negotiation left unfinished.