Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow 50%-49% lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely Michigan voters, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday.

Among registered voters, El-Sayed leads Rogers 51%-48%, reversing an August result in which Rogers held a 51%-47% advantage. El-Sayed’s supporters are also somewhat more settled in their choice: 87% say they are certain to support him, compared with 80% of Rogers’ backers. Overall, 15% of voters say they could change their choice before Election Day.

Voters express concerns about both candidates. 39% say they are extremely concerned that Rogers is too closely aligned with President Donald Trump, while 36% have the same level of concern that El-Sayed is too liberal. The candidates have similar favorable ratings, with 47% viewing El-Sayed positively and 44% saying the same of Rogers.

El-Sayed has stronger support among women, Black voters, college graduates and voters under 45, as well as a small subgroup of union households. Rogers performs more strongly among men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and White voters without college degrees.

Both candidates have consolidated most of their respective party bases. Rogers receives support from 95% of Republicans, including 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans. El-Sayed has the backing of 93% of Democrats, including 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. Independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.

The poll also finds Democrats with a 52%-47% advantage when Michigan voters are asked which party they want to control the Senate. However, 11% of likely voters who supported El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Haley Stevens, say they currently intend to vote for Rogers.

El-Sayed narrowly defeated the pro-Israel Stevens in the Democratic primary. His positions on Israel have long been a point of controversy in the campaign. In a recent MS NOW interview, he described Israel’s military actions in Gaza as "bloodthirsty" and accused Israeli leaders of genocide.

In another interview with journalist Jim Acosta, El-Sayed acknowledged that Hamas had committed war crimes while maintaining his accusations against the Israeli government.

El-Sayed has opposed unconditional US military assistance to Israel and has repeatedly declined to directly state whether Israel has a right to exist. In a pre-election interview, he described Israel’s leadership as "as evil as Hamas."

He has also faced criticism over comments following a March attack on the Temple Israel synagogue in West Bloomfield Township near Detroit. Authorities said Ayman Ghazali, a naturalized US citizen from Lebanon, drove an explosives-laden vehicle into the synagogue, causing a fire, and died at the scene. His family had reportedly lost relatives in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon one week before the Michigan attack.

El-Sayed condemned the attack and antisemitism but also said that “violence is a cycle" and that “hurt people hurt people." Critics argued that the comments could be interpreted as excusing the attack. El-Sayed apologized to the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus for the remarks in late August.