Democratic challenger Cait Conley holds a narrow two-point lead over Republican Congressman Mike Lawler in New York’s closely watched 17th Congressional District, according to a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey released Thursday.

The poll shows Conley receiving 48% support among likely voters, compared to 46% for Lawler, with 7% undecided. Conley’s two-point advantage is within the poll’s margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points.

The survey was conducted September 27-29 among 400 likely voters, a polling window that coincided entirely with the Sukkos holiday. Notably, September 27 was the second day of Yom Tov, when observant Orthodox Jews refrain from using phones and other electronic devices. Emerson says respondents were contacted through MMS text messages directing them to an online survey, with additional responses collected through an online panel. September 28 and 29 were Chol Hamoed, when those electronic restrictions do not apply. Emerson’s published methodology does not provide a breakdown by religion, making it unclear how many Orthodox Jewish voters participated in the survey.

The survey comes with just over a month remaining before the November 3 election.

NY-17, which includes all or portions of Rockland, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties, is among the closely watched congressional races this election cycle.

The poll found a significant enthusiasm difference depending on voters’ level of interest in the election. Among respondents who said they are “very excited” to vote, Conley leads Lawler 52% to 45%. Among voters who described themselves as “somewhat excited,” Lawler leads 52% to 40%.

The survey also found a change in crossover support compared with the 2024 election.

“In the 2024 Emerson NY-17 poll, 20% of Democrats supported Rep. Lawler, while 4% of Republicans supported the Democrat, Mondaire Jones,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

“In 2026, Democratic crossover support for Lawler fell eight points to 12%, while Republican support for the Democrat rose six points, to 10%.”

The economy — including jobs, inflation and taxes — ranked as the most important issue facing the state among NY-17 voters, cited by 31% of respondents. Another 23% selected “threats to democracy,” 13% cited immigration and 12% named housing affordability.

The poll also asked voters about U.S. military action in Iran. Fifty-two percent said they disapprove, 37% said they approve and 11% were undecided.

Lawler’s personal ratings are nearly evenly divided, with 45% of respondents viewing him favorably and 46% unfavorably. Conley is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 35%, while 22% have yet to form an opinion.

Lawler’s favorability has declined from Emerson’s October 2024 survey, when 52% viewed him favorably and 42% unfavorably.

The poll also measured voters’ views of Gov. Kathy Hochul and President Donald Trump. Hochul has a 40% approval rating in the district, while 49% disapprove. Trump has a 43% approval rating, while 53% disapprove.

Lawler, a former New York state assemblyman, is seeking a third term in Congress. Conley, a U.S. Army veteran and West Point graduate who previously worked at the Department of Homeland Security during the Biden administration, is making her first run for elected office after winning a five-way Democratic primary.

The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey has a margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points.