Two major Israeli election polls released Wednesday evening, less than two weeks before Israelis head to the polls, paint sharply conflicting pictures of the political landscape, with one showing Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition falling well short of a majority and the other projecting a narrow 62-seat majority for the right-wing bloc.

The surveys, conducted for Channel 13 and Channel 14, differ dramatically in their projections for Netanyahu’s Likud party, the Chareidi parties, and several smaller political factions, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Knesset elections.

According to the Channel 13 poll, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party emerges as the largest faction with 20 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud trails with just 18 seats.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party receives 12 seats, followed by Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, each with nine.

Among the Chareidi parties, United Torah Judaism, led by Yaakov Asher, receives eight seats, while Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, receives seven.

Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit receives eight seats, while the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin wins six.

The Joint Arab List receives nine seats, while Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am receives six.

Two smaller parties also cross the electoral threshold in the Channel 13 survey. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael receives four seats, while the combined Reservists and Economic Party headed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha also receives four.

Under that scenario, Netanyahu’s bloc receives just 51 seats, compared to 50 seats for the non-Arab opposition parties, 15 for the Arab parties, and four for Hendel and Zelekha.

However, a separate Channel 14 poll released the same evening presents a dramatically different picture.

In that survey, Likud emerges as the largest party with 29 seats, an 11-seat difference from the Channel 13 projection.

Eisenkot’s Yashar remains at 20 seats, while Bennett’s party receives 11 seats, a four-seat increase from Channel 14’s previous survey.

Shas receives 10 seats, three more than in the Channel 13 poll, while United Torah Judaism receives eight seats in both surveys.

Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit also receives eight seats in both polls, while the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance receives seven seats in Channel 14.

The Democrats receive eight seats, Yisrael Beiteinu receives five, the Joint Arab List receives nine, and Ra’am receives five.

Unlike Channel 13, Channel 14 projects that neither Winter’s party nor the Hendel-Zelekha alliance would cross the electoral threshold. Hendel and Zelekha receive 3.1% of the vote, while Winter receives 2.7%, both below Israel’s 3.25% threshold.

The resulting bloc breakdown gives Netanyahu and his allies 62 seats, compared to 44 for the opposition and 14 for the Arab parties.

The surveys also reveal notable differences in voter attitudes toward Netanyahu and potential coalition arrangements.

Channel 14 asked respondents who they considered most suitable to serve as prime minister. Netanyahu received 52%, Eisenkot 32%, Bennett 11%, and Lieberman 5%.

In a separate head-to-head comparison between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, Netanyahu received 52% compared to Eisenkot’s 48%.

Channel 13 examined attitudes toward forming a government with the support of Arab parties. According to the survey, 43% opposed such an arrangement, 40% supported it, and 17% were undecided.

Among respondents who identified as coalition voters, 60% supported forming a government with Chareidi parties in exchange for military draft exemptions, while 21% opposed the arrangement and 19% were undecided.

The Channel 14 poll was conducted Wednesday by NEXT DATA among 568 adults, with data analyzed by pollster Shlomo Filber.

The Channel 13 survey included 1,018 respondents and reported a sampling margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)