Despite repeated declarations that they are no longer committed to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s political bloc, Shas and United Torah Judaism are expected to renew their alliance with Likud following next Tuesday’s Knesset elections, according to a political analysis published Thursday by Israel Hayom.

The Charedi parties have publicly insisted that they are not committed to either political bloc, amid growing frustration within the Charedi community over the continued arrests of yeshiva bochurim and the failure to resolve their military draft status.

However, the report suggests that the public distancing from Netanyahu is primarily intended to reassure Charedi voters that their representatives will not enter another government without securing meaningful guarantees.

Netanyahu’s recent interview with Charedi journalists Yisrael Cohen and Yaki Adamker reinforced expectations of renewed cooperation. During the interview, Netanyahu expressed support for passing legislation addressing the draft issue before the next government is sworn in and criticized the ongoing arrests of yeshiva bochurim.

A senior United Torah Judaism source told Israel Hayom that the party would be prepared to join Netanyahu if his bloc secures 61 Knesset seats, but only after legislation resolving the draft issue is approved.

“If he has 61, we’ll join,” the source said. “But the agreement will only be signed once the draft law passes, before anyone even sits in their chair. As far as we’re concerned, that’s the red line.”

The report argues that cooperation with the opposition remains highly unlikely, particularly as opposition leaders, including Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, continue campaigning for tougher military draft requirements and financial sanctions against those who do not enlist.

However, if neither political bloc secures a majority, the Charedi parties could find themselves holding the balance of power, with approximately 15 Knesset seats potentially determining the outcome of crucial votes.

In that scenario, United Torah Judaism and Shas could support individual government measures without formally joining a coalition, negotiating their demands separately on legislation, budgets, and other parliamentary matters.

“If nobody has 61, our seats will become the deciding factor in the Knesset,” the UTJ source said, adding that parties seeking support for budgets or major legislation would have to negotiate with Charedi lawmakers on each vote.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s efforts to convince Motti Leitner, chairman of the Charedi Public Party, to withdraw from the elections are being viewed as further evidence of his determination to preserve the Charedi vote.

Netanyahu reportedly met Leitner late at night in Petach Tikvah and urged him to withdraw, fearing that votes for his party could prevent the right-wing bloc from securing the 61 seats needed to form a government.

Leitner, however, has rejected the pressure and announced that his party will remain in the race.

“We are not withdrawing. The monopoly of United Torah Judaism and Shas is over,” Leitner declared.

(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)