It’s inconceivable that the outgoing Israeli government, on whose watch the Jewish people suffered the worst massacre since the Holocaust, didn’t resign in 2023. Instead, it served out its full four-year term. It’s also a bit unbelievable that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party isn’t being roundly trounced in the opinion polls.

Polling results released by Israeli Channel 13 last week, on Oct. 14, projected Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party getting 20 seats with Netanyahu’s Likud at 18 seats, out of a total of 120. Asked who is better suited to be prime minister, 45% of respondents said Gadi Eisenkot and 38% said Netanyahu. My best guess is that neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Eisenkot will be able to form a government representing a majority in the Knesset – 61 of 120 seats.

Israelis vote for a party, rather than a candidate. Lawmakers don’t represent specific districts, so there is no Knesset member representing my Tel Aviv suburb, for example. The 120 seats are filled based on the proportion of the vote that a party gets. If it gets 10%of the vote, it gets 10% of the seats – filled in ranked order based on its slate of candidates. The one catch is that to be represented, a party needs at least 3.25% of the vote.

Israeli governments obtain a majority by cobbling together a coalition with other parties to reach the 61-seat magic number. Two parties, Amcha Yisrael, which is supportive of Netanyahu, and another party headed by Yoaz Hendel, whose allegiances are a bit unclear, are polling right around the threshold and could scramble the math depending on whether or not they make it in. Channel 13’s poll projected Eisenkot’s bloc getting 50 seats, a pro-Netanyahu bloc with 51, Hendel’s slate with four and two Arab party slates with the balance of power at 15.

I understand, but disagree with most of the Zionist parties, including parties allied with Eisenkot, that they would not accept non-Zionist Arab parties in a future government. But, I would point out that Netanyahu’s sharing a government with non-Zionist ultra-Orthodox parties has never been an issue in and of itself.

It’s not healthy for a country to shut out Arab parties that represent 20 percent of the country’s population. Ironically, those parties might support a government led by Gadi Eisenkot from the outside, enabling him to form a government that would fall short of a majority, but would win an initial vote of confidence.

Netanyahu’s government has been a disaster for the Arab community, which has been buffeted by a spike in crime and has witnessed three years of war in the Gaza Strip, where many Israeli Arabs have family ties in addition to cultural affinities. At minimum, the Arab parties could support replacing the current speaker of the Knesset, paving the way for a change in the legislative agenda and the repeal of antidemocratic legislation passed by the outgoing government.

I’ll be voting for the Democrats, a party formed through the merger of the center-left Labor Party and left-wing Meretz. It’s headed by Yair Golan, a former Israel Defense Forces deputy chief of staff who is committed to shift Israel onto a more centrist course. I also admire his clear-cut consent to have the United Arab List party join a government of which he is a part. Arab-Jewish cooperation in the government is a positive thing, he rightly said.

Another Netanyahu-led government would be disastrous for Israel, which needs new direction in both domestic and foreign policy. A government, even a short-term one, headed by Eisenkot could stem the country’s downward spiral and put Israel back on track.

The election is Oct. 27.

Cliff Savren is a former Clevelander who covers the Middle East for the Cleveland Jewish News from Ra’anana, Israel in this bi-weekly column. He is an editor at Haaretz. To read more from him, visit cjn.org/savren.