The third round of American-Iranian nuclear negotiations ended Thursday in Geneva without a breakthrough, and by Friday morning the world was responding as if war had become a real possibility.

Fourteen governments – including theUnited Kingdom, China, India, and most of NATO Europe – issued evacuation orders or their highest-level travel warnings for Iran, urging citizens to leave the country immediately while commercial flights are still available.

Britain went further: it withdrew its diplomatic staff from the Tehran embassy entirely, which is now operating remotely. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office cited a “deteriorating security situation.”

The following countries issued evacuation notices for their citizens:

– Australia — Leave as soon as possible
– Brazil — Immediate departure advised
– Canada — Leave immediately due to risk of hostilities
– China — Evacuate via commercial means right away
– Finland — Avoid Iran; also recommends leaving Israel and Lebanon
– Germany — No travel; leave promptly
– India — All citizens, including students and pilgrims, exit by any available transport
– Kazakhstan — Urging citizens to leave while transport is available
– Poland — Leave immediately
– Serbia — Depart due to deteriorating security
– Singapore — Avoid travel; leave Iran
– South Korea — Do not travel to Iran
– Sweden — Avoid all travel; leave immediately
– United Kingdom — Heightened risks; embassy staff withdrawn
– United States — Leave now; land routes available if needed

France additionally warned its citizens not to travel to Israel, Jerusalem, or Judea/Samaria; a signal that Paris is thinking about a broader regional eruption, not merely a US-Iran confrontation.

The cascade of warnings came the same day as a confidential report by the United Nations nuclear watchdog, obtained by The Associated Press, which acknowledged that it has no idea what Iran is currently doing with its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency stated it “cannot verify whether Iran has suspended all enrichment-related activities,” and that it “cannot provide any information on the current size, composition or whereabouts” of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium; material that, as of the last verified count, was sufficient to build up to ten nuclear bombs.

Thursday’s Geneva session was the third this year, all conducted under Omani mediation. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described it as “the most detailed and longest” round yet. The talks were split into morning and afternoon sessions.

Araghchi emerged sounding cautiously encouraged: “We were able to identify the main elements of a possible agreement and discuss these elements. Of course, there are still differences, but in most cases we have at least reached a general understanding of how to resolve these issues.” Iran’s foreign ministry added that the session had featured “constructive proposals” on both nuclear matters and sanctions relief — the first public acknowledgment that economic concessions are on the table.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi said there had been “significant progress in the negotiation.” The parties agreed to assign technical teams to continue work in Vienna next week, with lower-level talks expected as early as Monday.

But Bloomberg reported that the American envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, left Geneva “disappointed.” The core impasse was unchanged: Washington insists Iran halt uranium enrichment entirely and address its ballistic missile program; Tehran insists it will never surrender the right to enrich on its own soil. Iran’s Ayatollah Khatami stated it plainly Friday: “The regime will not accept suspension of enrichment.”

Trump Reiterates Desire for Deal, Unsatisfied With Iran

President Donald Trump said on Friday that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.. I am not happy with their behavior, but there will still be more talks…. I want a deal.”

The IAEA Cannot Account for Iran’s Bomb Material

The confidential IAEA report, circulated to member states Friday, was alarming in its candor about how little the international community currently knows about Iran’s nuclear program.

The agency said it has been unable to access the Iranian nuclear facilities struck during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025. Iran has refused entry, telling the IAEA in a February 2 letter that normal safeguards are now “legally untenable and materially impracticable” in the wake of the attacks.

As of the last verified count, Iran held 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity — a short technical step below the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material. Under normal IAEA protocols, stockpiles at that enrichment level must be verified every month. They have not been inspected since June 2025.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has warned that the stockpile could theoretically yield as many as ten nuclear bombs if Iran chose to weaponize it. He added that this does not mean Iran has built such weapons — but acknowledged that without access, the agency simply cannot say.

With inspectors locked out, the IAEA turned to satellite imagery. Commercially available photos of the Isfahan facility — struck by Israel and the United States in June, located some 350 kilometers southeast of Tehran — showed “regular vehicular activity” around the entrance to a tunnel complex used to store enriched material. Activity was also detected at Natanz and Fordow, though the agency stressed it could not determine “the nature and purpose” of what it was observing.

The report concluded that the “loss of continuity of knowledge… needs to be addressed with the utmost urgency.” Grossi himself attended both the February 17 and February 26 rounds of Geneva talks, advising on verification mechanisms. Under the NPT, Iran is legally obligated to cooperate with the IAEA. It has not done so since the June war.

Inside Washington: A House Divided

While negotiators were in Geneva, a sharper internal debate was playing out in Washington over whether the United States is approaching — or has already passed — the moment for military action.

Trump this week delivered his clearest dual message yet. In his State of the Union address, he said: “My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world’s number one state sponsor of terror to have a nuclear weapon.” In the same speech, he told Congress — and implicitly Tehran — that Iran is already developing missiles capable of striking Europe and is working toward missiles that could reach the continental United States. “No nation should doubt our resolve,” he said. “We have the strongest military in the world.”

Witkoff told Fox News this week that Trump is “curious” why Iran has not capitulated despite the massive military buildup. “I wouldn’t use the word frustrated,” he said, “because he knows he has many alternatives.” Kushner reportedly argued internally that “time works in America’s favor” and urged the president to give diplomacy further room — while encouraging a clear exit point if talks stall.

Vice President JD Vance articulated the administration’s official stance: “I think we all prefer the diplomatic option. But it really depends on what the Iranians do and what they say.” He rejected regime-change as an explicit goal — “If the Iranian people want to overthrow their regime, that is up to them” — but warned that evidence of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program “creates problems for us,” and said the U.S. has seen “indications of such efforts.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also serving as national security adviser, this week made the sharpest public case for treating Iran as a military threat. “Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missiles is a very big problem,” he said Thursday, noting that 30,000 to 40,000 American troops at eight or nine regional facilities are within range of Iranian weapons. He described Iran’s weapons investment as staggering given its economic condition: “For a country that’s facing sanctions, whose economy is in tatters, whose people are suffering — somehow they still find the money to invest in missiles of greater and greater capacity every year.” Rubio is scheduled to visit Israel on Monday and Tuesday.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth kept his message brief: “Our job is to present options. Everything is on the table. It’s the president’s decision.”

CIA Director John Ratcliffe — known for hawkish views on Iran — has stayed largely silent publicly while playing an active internal role. His rare joint briefing of congressional leaders alongside Rubio drew notice. The CIA this week also released a video in Persian urging Iranians to contact the agency and providing instructions for secure communication using burner phones and anonymous browsing — a move interpreted as both a deterrent signal and operational outreach ahead of a potential conflict.

The most cautious voice in uniform belongs to General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He has reportedly presented Trump with detailed risk scenarios warning that a strike could trigger a prolonged confrontation, American casualties, and no clear definition of success. The Washington Post reported Caine warned of shortages in critical munitions. CNN reported that in an extended Situation Room meeting, Caine could not predict the outcome of a regime-change operation. Trump pushed back publicly on the munitions report, though he did not deny that caution was expressed.

The IDF Is Watching

The Israeli military has been tracking the situation with evident intensity. IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin addressed the public directly Friday: “Also this week, we are aware of the sense of uncertainty and the tension felt by the public in light of regional developments.

“The IDF is closely monitoring developments in Iran and remains alert and prepared to defend you. We are operating in full coordination with our partners in order to strengthen our defensive posture.”

The reference to “full coordination with our partners” is understood as a reference to the United States.

Meanwhile, all U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tankers have been pulled out of Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Refueling tankers are a critical enabler of long-range strike operations. Their movement is among the most closely watched indicators of imminent military action.

Markets Absorb the Shock

UAE stocks retreated Friday on what traders described as a US-Iran impasse, while global oil prices jumped. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows — runs along Iran’s southern coast. Any conflict threatening Gulf shipping would send energy prices sharply higher and reverberate through the global economy.

What Comes Next

Technical teams are expected to meet in Vienna as early as Monday to work through the mechanics of a potential deal. But the gap between the two positions remains wide. Washington wants enrichment stopped, centrifuges dismantled, stockpiles surrendered, and ballistic missiles curtailed. Tehran has agreed only to discuss the nuclear question — and only if enrichment continues on Iranian soil.