After nearly two weeks of joint Israeli-American strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, air defenses and senior command, U.S. intelligence still assesses that the regime is not close to collapse and continues to control the country. Israeli officials, according to Reuters, have also privately acknowledged there is no certainty the campaign will topple the clerical regime.

That sharply narrows the belief that air power alone can quickly bring down the Islamic Republic. Even before the war began, a U.S. intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that neither limited strikes nor a broader campaign was likely to produce regime change, largely because no unified opposition was positioned to take over and the system was expected to preserve continuity even if its top leader was killed.

Inside Iran, the succession points to consolidation, not collapse. Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation was reportedly pushed through by the Revolutionary Guards, which Reuters says have grown even more powerful during the war and may now drive a tougher line abroad and harsher repression at home.

This leaves Israel with a tougher but clearer second phase. Tactical success is visible, regime breakage is still not. Trump’s messaging has swung between saying there is “practically nothing left” to target and insisting the U.S. will stay to “finish the job,” even as the war keeps rattling oil markets and intensifying pressure for a defined endgame. For now, the intelligence picture says the Iranian terror regime is wounded, but not yet falling.