In a surprise twist, given the tensions between Israel and Syria since the new government under Ahmed al-Sharaa took over after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria has been attempting to foil attempts to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah, at times successfully, according to an unnamed Western source reported in Ynet.

However, Israel and Lebanon have not entered into peace negotiations despite Syria’s — and even more so Israel’s — efforts to weaken Hezbollah, due to Lebanon’s fear of a civil war should Hezbollah emerge from the conflict still standing, according to a French official who spoke to Ynet about the matter. The Lebanese government is waiting to see the results of the war before holding discussions with Israel.

“Within the Lebanese government, they are waiting to see how much Hezbollah is weakened,” the official said. “The Lebanese fear a civil war and a direct confrontation with the terrorist organization.”

“On the Israeli side, there is no desire to look foolish and enter talks with Lebanon after it became clear that the Lebanese did not deliver the goods and did not dismantle Hezbollah under the November 2024 ceasefire agreement,” he added. “Beyond that, the war is not yet over and it is impossible to know how badly Hezbollah will be hit, so it is better to keep pounding them.”

The official placed the blame for the current conflict squarely on Hezbollah.

“Hezbollah bears the primary responsibility for the current escalation, and France recognizes Israel’s right to self-defense because Israel is under Hezbollah fire,” he said. “Fundamentally, the issue for Lebanon is to restore sovereign security control over its state and move away from a condition of permanent war, which has existed with Israel since 1948. That means reaching the end of the war, not just a ceasefire. It is too early to talk about a peace agreement with Israel, but it is not impossible to achieve, if Lebanon enforces a monopoly on the use of force. The Lebanese have confirmed that they are prepared to enter direct talks with Israel.”

“On the Israeli side, they are making clear that Lebanon must first begin doing what it committed to do, and then they can talk,” he added. “There are no major disagreements between Israel and Lebanon. There are issues relating to the border, but they are limited and solvable.”