Nickolay Mladenov, director-general and high representative for Gaza of the U.S.-proposed Board of Peace, met with senior Hamas officials in Cairo last week and laid down an ultimatum: He gave them until the end of this week to agree to a disarmament proposal, after Hamas dallied for four weeks. Unnamed sources familiar with the discussions said that the board will not accept major changes; Hamas will only be allowed to tweak the proposal at the margins.

Against the backdrop of dramatic developments in the war with Iran, the Board of Peace is pressing forward with the second phase of the peace plan, in a sign of the urgency to achieve the demilitarization of Hamas.

While Hamas has signaled neither its acceptance nor its rejection of the proposal, it has complained that Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire agreement with strikes extending deep into Gaza. Israel acknowledged the strikes but argued that they were carried out in response to Hamas violations of the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar are serving as mediators and applying pressure to Hamas to accept the proposal. An Arab diplomat involved with the mediation said that it’s unlikely that Hamas will accept a deal without adding major provisions, adding that “even if they do, it’s unlikely that Israel will comply” because of political reasons. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be reluctant to pull back from Gaza during an election year, and a significant part of his coalition is pressing for a permanent presence in the Strip.

Under the plan, a phased Israeli withdrawal is tied to the disarmament of Hamas and the destruction of the tunnels. Reconstruction also will not begin unless and until Hamas gives up its weapons. The eight-month timeline that has been proposed comprises five stages:

1. Days 1–15: The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) assumes governance of the Strip and prepares for weapons collection.
2. Days 16–40: Israel removes its military infrastructure and heavy weaponry from areas under its control. An international security force takes over.
3. Days 30–90: Hamas relinquishes all of its weapons to NCAG and permits the destruction of its tunnels and all other military infrastructure. This is the most critical phase.
4. Days 91–250: NCAG collects and registers all remaining weapons, and Israel begins its phased withdrawal.
5. Final Stage: Verification of the complete disarmament of Hamas is finalized; Israel withdraws almost completely, leaving in place a security perimeter; and reconstruction begins.

Mladenov issued a stark warning to Hamas of consequences for failure to comply.

“He who will not cross the river will drown in the sea,” he said.