A fragile two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is showing significant signs of strain ahead of negotiations in Pakistan, while Israel concurrently pushes forward with plans for direct talks with Lebanon. Despite the diplomatic maneuvering, intense cross-border fire continues to threaten the region.

The Pakistan-brokered truce between Washington and Tehran – which came just hours before a deadline where U.S. President Donald Trump threatened attacks on Iran’s power plants and the destruction of “a whole civilization” – is already facing steep hurdles.

Washington has accused Tehran of breaching promises regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Daily shipping traffic through the critical waterway has plummeted to less than 10% of its historical average since the start of the war. In the first 24 hours of the truce, only one oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers passed through.

President Trump expressed deep dissatisfaction late Thursday, stating on social media that Iran is doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil through. “That is not the agreement we have!” he wrote.
Complicating the upcoming talks in Islamabad, Iran released a 10-point proposal on Wednesday outlining its terms for a permanent settlement.

The demands include maintaining Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment, the lifting of all sanctions, and an end to the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In a separate regional development, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement denying any connection to recent drone strikes targeting Gulf Arab states.

A core point of contention threatening the U.S.-Iran talks is the status of Lebanon. Iran and Pakistani mediators assert that Lebanon is explicitly included in the truce. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that violations of the truce in Lebanon would bring severe consequences, while

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam personally phoned Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to praise Islamabad’s mediation and explicitly ask him to ensure Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire to prevent further Israeli strikes.

However, the U.S. and Israel remain adamant that military operations against Hezbollah are not covered. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stressed Wednesday night that the agreement does not include Lebanon and that all parties are well aware of this fact.
“I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t,” U.S. Vice President JD Vance told reporters. “We never made that promise… If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart, in a conflict where they were getting hammered, over Lebanon… that’s ultimately their choice.”

In Yerushalayim, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced instructions for the cabinet to pursue direct negotiations with Lebanon aimed at disarming Hezbollah and securing a historic peace agreement. According to a report by the Kan public broadcaster, officials in Jerusalem believe a deal with Lebanon can be finalized before the upcoming Knesset elections, currently slated for October.
Mr. Netanyahu praised the recent military successes, stating, “Our significant achievements both in Iran and against the axis of evil have brought about a historic change in Israel’s standing in the region. They have also led to changes in our relations with countries we did not have relations with before.”

Despite the push for talks, the Prime Minister clarified that military pressure will continue. “There is no ceasefire in Lebanon,” he declared. The intense Israeli operations earlier in the week drew international scrutiny; Lebanese authorities claimed over 300 people were killed in Wednesday’s strikes—without differentiating between combatants and civilians—while Israel confirmed it had eliminated over 200 Hezbollah terrorists.

On the ground, Hezbollah continues its daily barrages. Early Friday morning, sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and surrounding cities. The IDF reported that one missile was intercepted while another fell in an open area, with b’chasdei Shamayim no injuries reported. The day prior, Hezbollah fired over 50 rockets toward northern Israeli communities, and an Iranian missile reportedly fell in the Jordan Valley. In response, the IDF struck 10 Hezbollah rocket launchers and reportedly eliminated the nephew of the Hezbollah chief.

The diplomatic atmosphere surrounding the Islamabad talks was further poisoned by severe antisemitic remarks from Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, who referred to Israel as a “cancer” and wished for its destruction in a social media post.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and the Prime Minister’s Office swiftly condemned the comments. “Israel views these blatant antisemitic blood libels very gravely from a government claiming to ‘mediate peace,'” Mr. Sa’ar stated, noting that Israel will continue to defend itself against terrorists who vow its destruction.

In a positive development for Israeli travel amidst the conflict, British Airways announced it will resume service to Israel beginning July 1, becoming the first airline to declare a return to the route since the outbreak of the war with Iran.