New U.S. intelligence assessments are pouring cold water on any idea that Iran’s ballistic missile threat has been fully crushed. The Wall Street Journal reports that the regime still holds thousands of ballistic missiles and could return some launchers to service from underground storage and missile complexes that survived the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. Officials say more than half of Iran’s launchers have been destroyed, damaged or trapped underground, but many may still be repairable or recoverable.

Iran was hit hard, but not stripped of its ability to threaten the region again. U.S. and Israeli officials told the Journal that Tehran had roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel before the war and still retains more than 1,000 medium-range missiles. Its launch rate has fallen sharply, which points to real damage, but not to strategic collapse. Iran’s underground “missile city” network appears to have done what it was built to do: absorb punishment, preserve survivable assets and keep the regime in the fight.

What is now worrying officials in Washington is not only what Iran still has, but what it may do with the pause in fighting. According to the Journal, some U.S. officials believe Tehran could use the current ceasefire window to rebuild parts of its missile arsenal by digging out launchers, restoring damaged systems and shifting surviving stockpiles deeper into hardened sites. At the same time, U.S. and Iranian officials have opened direct talks in Islamabad under a fragile two-week ceasefire, meaning diplomacy is unfolding while intelligence agencies are still warning that the Iranian regime remains dangerous and recoverable.

A missile force that is bruised but still alive can continue to deter, threaten population centers and buy Tehran leverage at the negotiating table. And there is another potential warning sign: Reuters reported that U.S. intelligence indicates China may be preparing to send Iran new air-defense systems, which, if confirmed, could complicate any future effort to strike rebuilding missile infrastructure. The war badly degraded Iran’s capabilities, but the latest assessments make clear the regime’s missile problem is not over. It is entering a new phase.