Seven weeks of combat operations against Iran have left the United States military with sharply reduced inventories of critical missiles and air defense interceptors, creating what defense analysts are calling a “near-term risk” should another major conflict arise in the coming years, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and three sources familiar with classified internal Defense Department stockpile assessments who spoke with CNN, the outlet reported Tuesday.

The CSIS report found that the US has expended at least 45% of its Precision Strike Missile stockpile and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptor missiles. At least half of its THAAD missile inventory – the system designed to intercept ballistic missiles in the terminal phase – has also been used. The figures closely align with classified Pentagon data, according to the sources familiar with the internal assessments.

Beyond those headline figures, the US has expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk cruise missile stockpile, more than 20% of its long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. Replacing those latter systems would take an estimated four to five years even under accelerated production.

“The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” said Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and co-author of the CSIS report. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.”
The report’s central concern is not the ongoing Iran theater. Analysts say the US likely retains sufficient munitions to sustain combat operations against Iran if the current ceasefire were to break down.

The more pressing worry is the military’s diminished capacity to simultaneously or subsequently confront a near-peer adversary such as China – a scenario that would require far larger quantities of precisely the weapons most depleted. It will likely take years before inventories return to pre-war levels, the CSIS analysis concludes.

The Pentagon pushed back on the characterization. Chief spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.” He added that since President Trump took office, the military has “executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”

The assessment nonetheless stands in stark contrast to public statements by President Trump, who last month denied that the US is running short of any weaponry – even as his administration simultaneously requested additional Pentagon funding specifically tied to the war’s impact on existing stockpiles.

“Munitions in particular, at the high end we have a lot, but we’re preserving it,” Trump said, referring to the supplemental funding request. “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top.”

Earlier this year the Pentagon signed a series of contracts aimed at expanding domestic missile production capacity. But analysts note that even with the increased output, delivery timelines for replacement systems run three to five years.

Near-term deliveries are especially constrained due to historically modest procurement orders placed in prior years, leaving the defense industrial base with limited surge capacity.

The warnings were not unforeseen. Before the conflict began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other senior military leaders cautioned the Trump administration that a protracted campaign could significantly strain weapons stockpiles – particularly those supporting Israel and Ukraine, CNN previously reported. Those warnings went unheeded, or were at least insufficient to alter the scope of the campaign.

On Capitol Hill, Democratic lawmakers have grown increasingly vocal about the implications. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), a former combat aviator, framed the challenge in blunt terms last month. “The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they’ve got a huge stockpile,” Kelly said. “So at some point… this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?”

The concern extends beyond the Middle East. The depletion of THAAD and Patriot interceptors – the backbone of American ballistic missile defense – is particularly significant given ongoing tensions with North Korea and China, both of which field large inventories of the kinds of ballistic missiles those systems are designed to defeat.

The ceasefire with Iran remains fragile, and no timeline for a diplomatic resolution has been announced. Should hostilities resume at scale, the US would be drawing on a significantly thinner arsenal than the one with which it entered the conflict.