A leading election forecaster has moved three key US Senate contests in Democrats’ direction, though Republicans remain favored to keep control of the chamber, according to a new update released Thursday.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics revised its ratings for Alaska, North Carolina, and Ohio, moving Alaska from “leans Republican” to “toss-up,” North Carolina from “toss-up” to “leans Democrat,” and Ohio from “leans Republican” to “toss-up.”

All three seats are currently held by Republicans.

The adjustments give Democrats a somewhat clearer—but still difficult—route to a potential Senate majority in November’s elections.

In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), who is seeking a third term, faces a crowded field in the Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary.

Sullivan is expected to face former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola as his main challenger in the general election.

While Alaska backed President Trump over Kamala Harris by 13 points in 2024, analysts noted that Peltola previously outperformed Democrats in her district, narrowly losing to Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) by 2.5 points.

In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) is projected to face former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in November.

The Center for Politics pointed to a recent Fox News poll showing Brown leading Husted 53% to 45% in the race for the final two years of Vice President JD Vance’s term.

It also highlighted Brown’s relatively strong showing in 2024 compared to national Democratic results, despite his earlier Senate loss to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio).

In North Carolina, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is expected to face former Gov. Roy Cooper in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.

The analysis cited Cooper’s fundraising advantage, statewide profile, and Whatley’s close alignment with President Trump—whose approval ratings in the state are reportedly weak—as factors giving Democrats a slight edge.

A recent Carolina Journal poll showed Cooper ahead by 11 points.

The Center for Politics said the overall outlook is driven more by broad national political conditions than by individual campaign dynamics, including polling trends and presidential approval ratings.

Despite Democratic gains in several races, analysts cautioned that Democrats would likely need to win every competitive “toss-up” state to secure a majority, while Republicans could retain control by winning just one.