The fragile U.S.-Iran truce is now hanging by a thread after American forces launched a major strike wave against Iran, hitting more than 80 targets with precision munitions in response to IRGC attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said the targets included Iranian air-defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities and more than 60 IRGC small boats operating in and near the waterway.

CENTCOM named three vessels it said were attacked by Iran, the Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, the Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan and the Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity. The U.S. framed the strikes as a direct answer to Iran’s assault on civilian-crewed commercial shipping in an international waterway, calling it a “clear and dangerous violation” of the ceasefire.

Tehran fired back fast. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed missile and drone attacks on American military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, and claimed they downed a U.S. MQ-9 drone. Air raid sirens sounded in both countries, while Kuwait said its air defenses were confronting “hostile” missile and drone attacks. There was no immediate U.S. confirmation of Iran’s MQ-9 claim.

The U.S. Treasury revoked the license that had allowed Iranian-origin crude, petrochemical and petroleum sales under the interim arrangement, allowing only a short wind-down through July 17 and barring new purchases or loadings after revocation.

President Trump, speaking in Ankara ahead of a NATO summit, suggested the interim agreement is effectively finished. Asked whether it was over, he said: “To me, I think it’s over.” Reuters reported that oil jumped sharply and stocks fell as the exchange of fire raised fears that the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, could again become a battlefield.

The Strait of Hormuz is not just another shipping lane. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says oil flow through the strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. That is why Iran’s attempt to weaponize the waterway hits far beyond the Gulf. It threatens energy markets, U.S. allies, Gulf states and the entire freedom-of-navigation framework that has kept global commerce moving.

The regime is now trying to present itself as the victim after attacking tankers, threatening U.S. assets and leveraging the strait for political power. Reuters reported that Iran’s military command condemned the U.S. strikes and warned against American interference in the strait, while Iranian officials also tried to fold Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon into their accusations. That is the same wider Iranian pressure campaign Israel has been facing for years: missiles, proxies, maritime threats and nuclear blackmail under different names.

No civilian deaths were reported in Iran, though Iranian media reported injuries from shrapnel at a commercial pier in Sirik. At least four oil and gas tankers turned back from attempting to transit Hormuz after the vessel attacks, a sign that the crisis is already affecting shipping behavior even before a full-scale closure.