Trump would do well to price out the need for continued vigilance against the mullahs
Photo: Flash90
WE
know President Trump always prioritizes economic benefits when weighing decisions. Whatever option he ultimately chooses regarding Iran — be it military action, regime change, negotiation, or some combination of the above —he must consider both the financial burden Iran’s current government imposes and the potential economic gains if a new regime replaces the current one.
To appreciate the scale of these economic considerations, it is important to examine the costs associated with military engagement.
According to the Costs of War project at Brown University, the United States has spent nearly $34 billion since October 7, 2023, on conflicts involving Iran’s so-called “3-H proxies” — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The US has allocated $22 billion to support Israel and directed an additional $12 billion to other allies and to its own military actions. Notably, this total is almost six times the typical annual US spending on military aid to Middle Eastern allies.
America’s current military deployment against Iran is costing it approximately $30 million per day, based on comparable estimates from the US military campaign against Venezuela.
These expenses underscore the urgency for the US to pursue alternatives that could deliver economic benefits, but only if a gentler, kinder government replaces Iran’s current regime.
In 2016, shortly after President Obama endorsed the Iran nuclear deal, McKinsey released a study estimating Iran’s economy could expand by $1 trillion over the next two decades. This projection was largely optimistic, assuming Iran would comply with the agreement and beat its centrifuges into plowshares, but that potential remains.
A more recent analysis by the Quincy Institution for Responsible Statecraft (June 2025) suggests that the US could export $25 billion annually to Iran, mainly in sectors such as aviation, agriculture, and automotive manufacturing. These exports could create 200,000 jobs for aerospace workers in Washington state, grain farmers in the Midwest, and auto parts manufacturers in the Rust Belt.
Despite potential incentives and economic benefits, Iranian leaders continue to rattle their sabers. The Islamic Revolutionary government won’t change, even at the risk of self-destruction.
Yet for the US to achieve meaningful change in Iran, it must clearly define its objectives and demonstrate resolve. The Trump administration claims it is acting wisely, pursuing negotiations and preparing for war. It’s a time-honored tactic that includes the art of deception, but Middle Eastern nations can easily misinterpret it as a show of weakness and a lack of resolve.
On the one hand, it’s hard to believe the administration would suddenly do an about-face and withdraw all of the military assets it dispatched to the region at great expense, including an aircraft carrier group and another on the way, advanced fighter jets, and anti-missile systems, without achieving any tangible results.
However, the time is approaching when the administration risks undermining itself by pursuing mutually exclusive agendas and contradicting its own positions.
President Trump said last Friday regime change is “the best thing that could happen” in Iran. But Vice President J.D. Vance told a Forbes reporter last week that “if the Iranian people want to overthrow the regime, that’s up to the Iranian people.”
Regime change will not occur spontaneously. We already saw the consequences when the Iranian people took to the streets, and the regime’s forces mowed down tens of thousands with automatic weapons. They continue to repress dissent with violence.
Vance added that America’s overriding concern is ensuring Iran doesn’t obtain nuclear weapons. That’s not going to reassure Israel, which is equally concerned about Iran’s ballistic missile threat, the money Iran continues to pump into its proxies, and the upgraded weapons systems China and Russia are pouring into Iran, according to open-source intelligence.
Trump’s own D-Day — the day of decision — is nearing. Maybe he’ll elect to wait out the month of Ramadan to avoid inflaming the Arab street, but the choice is stark. Either go to war, in which case you can never know all the consequences in advance; or make a deal you can be certain the other party won’t honor.
Israel is standing by, along with many other parts of the world that would like to see Iran’s 47-year reign of international terror come to an end, one way or another.
Oh Canada
Canada abolished its Office of the Special Representative on Combating Islamophobia following widespread concerns, according to the Middle East Forum, that the office “blurred the lines between anti-Muslim bigotry and legitimate concerns expressed by secular Muslims and security agencies about the influence of Islamist actors within Canada’s Muslim leadership.”
Reality Strikes in Gaza
By sending Foreign Affairs Minister Gideon Saar to this week’s meeting of President Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu is delivering a subtle signal that he lacks confidence in the process.
Bibi claims he can’t return to Washington a second time, after just getting back from last week’s meeting with Trump, even if that also means skipping his personal appearance at AIPAC.
He doesn’t need a pretext. Judging by the latest spike in Hamas ceasefire violations, Hamas is bored with peace and in no hurry to demilitarize.
Netanyahu’s stance is a further indication that he accepted Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan to achieve his goal of returning all Israeli hostages from Gaza, assuming the next stages of the plan would fail and he would instruct the IDF to finish the job it started.
Critics argue that even if Israel eliminates Hamas as a military and political power, it still lacks a plan for the “day after.”
The solution lies in the approach: If the IDF is the only force that can eliminate Hamas, it’s the only force to control it the day after. Once it’s clear the IDF is there to stay, the Board of Peace can redirect its focus to Trump’s original idea of relocating Gaza’s residents to greener pastures.
You Think You’re in Debt?
A new Congressional Budget Office estimate predicts that the US government will pay $1 trillion in 2026 just to cover interest on the nation’s $38 trillion debt. The total federal budget, across all categories, never exceeded $1 trillion until 1986 — 40 years ago — and now that sum will cover only interest payments.
(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1100)