Senior Israeli defense officials have informed their American counterparts that Iran is dramatically accelerating its missile production, raising concerns that the Islamic Republic could amass 5,000 ballistic missiles by the end of 2027. According to updated assessments, Iran is currently producing roughly 100 missiles per month — a pace that may continue to increase.

The warning comes as the United States remains engaged in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. However, Israeli officials are emphasizing what they describe as a more immediate and tangible threat: Tehran’s rapidly expanding ballistic arsenal. Military correspondent Yossi Yehoshua reported in Ynet that during recent high-level security discussions, Israeli defense leaders presented updated intelligence outlining the scale and speed of Iran’s missile buildup.

Iran’s strategy, according to the assessment, is based on overwhelming volume. While Israel fields advanced air defense systems such as the Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome, Iranian planners are believed to be banking on the fact that even the most sophisticated systems have limits. Sustained, large-scale barrages are intended to saturate Israel’s defensive shield and inflict significant damage on civilian areas and strategic sites.

Israeli intelligence and air force officials reportedly view these figures not as theoretical projections but as operational planning realities. Sources indicate that the situation could have been even more severe. Without a series of covert disruption and deterrence efforts carried out under Operation “Am KeLavi,” Iran’s stockpile might have reached as many as 8,000 missiles by the end of the decade. Those efforts are said to have slowed the expansion, though not halted it entirely.

Israeli officials are careful not to appear as though they are pushing Washington toward a broader conflict, but they have intensified engagement with the Pentagon in an effort to refocus attention on the missile threat. The Israeli message, according to sources familiar with the discussions, is that the danger is not limited to Israel. Iranian ballistic missiles also pose a direct threat to American bases in the Middle East, regional allies, and overall U.S. freedom of action in the region.

Within Israel’s defense establishment, the central question is whether the acceleration of Iran’s missile production can be curbed before the projected numbers become a strategic reality. For Israeli planners, the concern is no longer abstract. The threat consists of advanced missiles equipped with explosives and guidance systems, and the effort to counter it has become a race against time aimed at preventing a lasting shift in the regional balance of power.

{Matzav.com}