A national survey released Thursday by Emerson College Polling provides an initial look at the 2028 presidential race, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom holding a slim advantage in a competitive Democrat primary, while Vice President JD Vance maintains a commanding lead among Republican voters. The poll also shows Democrats improving their position ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, expanding their lead on the generic congressional ballot.

In the early Democrat primary picture for 2028, Newsom tops the field with 20 percent support.

He is followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent and Vice President Kamala Harris at 13 percent.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receives 9 percent, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro stands at 7 percent, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear registers 5 percent.

At the same time, 24 percent of Democrat voters say they remain undecided.

The numbers indicate that while no single contender has unified the party, emerging blocs of support are taking shape.

“Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Ocasio-Cortez performs strongest among voters under 30, where she captures 20 percent, pointing to solid backing from younger progressive Democrats.

Buttigieg leads among women with 20 percent and also posts a plurality among voters with postgraduate degrees at 21 percent, highlighting strength among highly educated constituencies.

Newsom’s best performance comes among voters over age 50, where he secures 23 percent support.

Harris draws her most significant backing from Black voters, earning 36 percent support within that group — her most substantial base in the early contest.

The large share of undecided voters suggests that the Democrat race remains fluid. With nearly one-quarter of respondents uncommitted, shifts in visibility, fundraising, or broader political dynamics could quickly alter the standings.

On the Republican side, Vance holds a decisive edge with 52 percent support, more than twice that of his closest rival.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio receives 20 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posts 6 percent. Eleven percent of Republican voters say they are undecided.

Kimball said Vance’s backing is even more concentrated among core Republicans.

Among self-identified Republican voters, 59 percent support Vance, compared to 19 percent for Rubio.

Independents who say they plan to participate in the 2028 Republican primary also lean toward Vance, though by a narrower margin of 33 percent to 23 percent over Rubio.

The early data suggest that Republican voters are quickly consolidating behind the vice president, in contrast to the more divided Democrat primary landscape.

Beyond the presidential contest, the survey points to a favorable environment for Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms.

On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50 percent to 42 percent, giving them an 8-point advantage and marking a 2-point gain from last month’s poll.

Independent voters favor the Democrat candidate by a 50 percent to 37 percent margin, a notable shift given their outsized influence in recent national elections.

The findings imply that voter concerns — particularly economic issues — may be shaping the political climate.

When respondents were asked to rank issues on a scale from 1 to 10, cost of living received the highest average importance score at 8.2.

Healthcare costs followed at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, healthcare access at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.

The issue breakdown reflects clear partisan differences. Democrats assign especially high importance to healthcare costs, rating it at 8.6 on average, while placing border security lowest at 4.9.

Republicans, by contrast, prioritize border security at 8.3 and deportation policy at 8.2, considerably higher than Democrats and independents.

For independents, cost of living ranks as the most pressing concern, also scoring 8.2.

Taken together, the results suggest that everyday economic pressures may play a central role in the 2026 elections, even as immigration and border enforcement continue to energize Republican voters.

The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted February 21-22 among 1,000 likely voters across the United States. The poll reports a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, comparable to a traditional margin of error.

{Matzav.com}