Before the recent U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, American intelligence officials assessed that even a large-scale military campaign would probably not lead to the collapse of the country’s ruling clerical regime, according to individuals familiar with the findings who spoke to The Washington Post.

The evaluation was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and examined how Iran’s political leadership might react if the country faced a major military offensive.

According to officials who were briefed on the document, analysts concluded that Iran’s governing structure is designed to endure significant outside pressure, including attacks that might eliminate high-ranking leaders or damage central state institutions.

The report was finalized shortly before the United States and Israel began launching strikes against targets inside Iran, the officials said.

Those military operations have primarily targeted strategic locations and military facilities as tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated.

Intelligence officials determined that Iran’s system of government—which blends religious leadership with powerful military and security organizations—contains several built-in safeguards intended to ensure the regime’s survival during periods of crisis.

Even if senior figures within the leadership were killed or removed, analysts concluded that the broader governing structure would likely remain functioning.

One element highlighted in the report is Iran’s established method for replacing top officials. The political system includes procedures for appointing a new supreme leader and maintaining stability within the country’s religious and political hierarchy.

The intelligence review also explored whether internal dissent might weaken the regime if Iran were subjected to prolonged military pressure.

However, analysts concluded that opposition movements inside and outside Iran remain divided and lack the cohesion needed to quickly unite behind a viable alternative government, according to officials familiar with the findings.

The conclusions raise questions about whether military operations alone could bring about sweeping political change in Iran. U.S. officials have said the strikes are meant to weaken Iran’s military capabilities and address concerns over its nuclear program.

At the same time, some political leaders in Washington and Israel have suggested that intensifying pressure on Tehran could eventually destabilize the regime.

Despite those views, intelligence officials noted that Iran’s political system has historically proven resilient during previous periods of conflict and international pressure.

The classified analysis represents the shared judgment of several U.S. intelligence agencies and was distributed to senior policymakers before the strikes began, officials said.

American officials declined to discuss the assessment publicly because the report remains classified, but individuals who reviewed it said the key conclusion was that even a significant military campaign would not necessarily cause the Iranian leadership structure to collapse.

{Matzav.com}