
US Intelligence Estimates That Iranian Regime Standing Firm Despite Air Strikes
NEW YORK (VINnews) — According to a report by the Reuters news agency based on three sources familiar with the details, U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s leadership remains largely functional and is not facing an immediate risk of collapse, despite nearly two weeks of intensive airstrikes by United States and Israel’s armed forces.
According to one of the sources who spoke with Reuters, cross-referencing information from numerous intelligence reports provides “a consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger of collapsing” and that it “maintains control over the Iranian public.” The source added that the most recent report on the issue was compiled only in the past few days.
Political pressure on the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is increasing due to the surge in oil prices, and he has signaled that he intends to bring the military operation, America’s largest since the 2003 Iraq War, to an end “soon.” However, Reuters notes that achieving an agreed end to the war will be difficult as long as Iran’s hardline leadership remains in power.
Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the campaign, U.S. intelligence emphasizes that the religious establishment in Iran remains cohesive. In private conversations, as reported by Reuters, senior Israeli officials also admitted that there is no certainty the war will lead to the fall of the ayatollah regime. A senior Israeli official told Reuters that there is no guarantee the conflict will cause the collapse of Iran’s religious government.
During the operation, air defense infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and senior government officials have been targeted. Despite dozens of deaths among the country’s leadership and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, U.S. intelligence believes that the IRGC and the interim leadership that has been appointed, including Mojtaba Khamenei, who was chosen as the new Supreme Leader, still control the country.
Another source told Reuters that overthrowing the regime could require a ground invasion, which would give citizens the confidence to take to the streets in protest. The Trump administration has not officially ruled out such a step.
Reuters also reported last week that Iranian-Kurdish militias have explored with Washington the possibility of military action in western Iran to spark an uprising.
Abdullah Mohtadi, leader of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, told Reuters in an interview:
“Tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms,” and there are “tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish regions.”
However, two sources familiar with the intelligence assessments told Reuters that there is serious doubt about the Kurds’ ability to stand up to Iranian security forces, since these groups suffer from shortages of weapons and manpower.
Despite their requests for military assistance, President Donald Trump has made clear that he rejects the entry of Kurdish forces into Iranian territory.