Israel’s intelligence leadership assessed ahead of the current war that military action against Iran could potentially trigger the collapse of the regime, according to a new report detailing pre-war deliberations at the highest levels of government.

Mossad chief David Barnea told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior officials that if key objectives were achieved—including decapitating Iran’s leadership and weakening its ability to repress its population—conditions could emerge for internal unrest that might destabilize the regime, Israel’s Channel 12 reported, citing unnamed sources.

According to the report, Barnea suggested that Israeli and U.S. intelligence agencies could play a role in facilitating renewed protests and helping identify alternatives to Iran’s ruling system. However, he reportedly emphasized that such an outcome was far from guaranteed and could take significant time to materialize.

The assessment appears to align with early messaging from both Netanyahu and President Trump at the outset of the conflict, when both leaders signaled that military pressure could open a path for political change inside Iran—while stressing that any ultimate shift would have to come from the Iranian people themselves.

In the weeks since, U.S. and Israeli officials have largely avoided explicitly framing the campaign as an effort to achieve regime change, instead focusing on degrading Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

Recent intelligence assessments suggest the regime remains in place, though weakened. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Thursday that Iran’s leadership structure appears “intact, but largely degraded,” and warned it could attempt to rebuild its military capacity if it survives the current conflict.

Netanyahu has struck a similarly cautious tone, saying there are “signs” the regime may be under pressure but stopping short of predicting its collapse.

“We’re working to create the conditions for it to collapse, but it may survive, it may not,” Netanyahu said at a press conference. “If it survives, it will be a lot weaker.”

The Israeli prime minister also indicated that while airstrikes alone are unlikely to bring down the regime, additional options remain under consideration, without elaborating.

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