As Operation Roaring Lion enters its fourth week, an Israeli official said Sunday that Jerusalem does not expect the Iranian regime to fall during the current fighting, but believes its collapse could follow within months of the war’s end.

“At no stage did we think the regime would fall during the war,” the official said, according to Ynet. “The assessments were that the regime’s collapse would come several months after the war. No one thought the public could take to the streets while under bombardment.”

The remarks offer a rare window into Israel’s strategic calculus as the United States intensifies its own strikes against Iran, with the pace of American operations accelerating in recent days, according to the official.

Israel now assesses that President Trump is moving toward seizing control of Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal, the regime’s economic lifeline. The official described such a move as a potential “game changer” that could cripple Tehran’s finances.

“It would create extreme economic strangulation,” the official said, adding that a loss of oil revenue could leave the regime unable to pay salaries — a scenario that could trigger internal collapse.

Regarding the status of Mojtaba Khamenei, the official said Israel believes he is alive, though Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is currently managing the country’s affairs.

Behind the scenes, Washington has opened exploratory contacts with Tehran on a possible agreement, with Qatar pushing to broker a deal. But the official characterized the talks as preliminary and said Trump is holding firm.

“The Americans are talking with the Iranians about a deal, but it’s all preliminary,” the official said. “The Qataris are pushing for an agreement, but Trump is not giving in and wants a surrender deal on his terms.”

Those terms would reportedly include the removal of all enriched uranium from Iranian soil and a commitment to fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear program with no deadline attached.

Asked whether Israel would prefer a negotiated surrender or regime change, the official said Israel favors the latter. “A new regime would abandon the nuclear program and hand over the enriched uranium,” he said, while acknowledging that the final decision lies with Trump.

The diplomatic maneuvering comes against the backdrop of a sharp escalation overnight. Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran, threatening to “destroy” Iran’s power stations if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s armed forces fired back with a warning of their own: if the Islamic Republic’s energy infrastructure is attacked, “all energy infrastructure belonging to the United States in the region will be targeted,” according to Iranian state media.

The strait, one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints, has been effectively choked since the start of the war. Iran imposed restrictions on vessel traffic early in the conflict, sending global oil and gas prices surging. Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the waterway daily. That figure has now plummeted to just three or four per day.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)