Israeli officials are rejecting claims of internal fractures within Iran’s leadership, warning instead that Tehran is preparing for a sustained war of attrition and remains firmly controlled by hardline elements of the Revolutionary Guard.

Sources in Israel told Maariv that decision-making power in Tehran is now concentrated in a rigid inner circle of the Revolutionary Guard, operating without restraint and showing no indication of internal moderation or a shift that could lead to a favorable resolution for the West. Officials speaking privately in Yerushalayim described the situation in stark terms, saying that President Pezeshkian has been significantly weakened. Although he was expected to play a more central role, in practice he is largely sidelined, with real authority having shifted to the Revolutionary Guard and the most hardline faction within Iran’s leadership.

Regarding Mojtaba Khamenei, Israeli officials say there is no clear certainty about his condition. The assessment is that he is alive, possibly conscious, but questions remain about how much control he truly exercises and how much is being carried out in his name. From Israel’s perspective, however, the distinction is largely irrelevant. Those currently making decisions are not more moderate but more extreme, and the figures now at the top are considered more hardline than those in power before the war began. Israeli officials say they see no signs of any Iranian “perestroika” or gradual political shift; on the contrary, the leadership that has emerged is more rigid, closing rather than opening any window for a more favorable agreement.

According to Israeli assessments, Iran retains the capability to sustain a prolonged campaign involving ongoing missile fire for months. Officials believe Tehran is relying on one key factor: President Donald Trump. Iranian strategy, they say, is built on the expectation that rising global oil prices will push the United States to pressure for a ceasefire and move toward negotiations on what Israeli officials describe as an unfavorable deal. From Israel’s standpoint, such an agreement would halt the fighting, release frozen Iranian funds, and leave Tehran’s power structure intact, without dismantling its nuclear program or missile systems. Israeli officials believe Iran views the United States as a lever—using oil markets and inflation to force a deal over Israel’s head.

When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli officials do not believe the issue can be resolved through air power alone. Assessments in Jerusalem indicate that Iran has come to see control over the strait as a strategic asset and a long-term pressure point it will continue to exploit even after the current conflict ends. As a result, officials argue that the issue must be addressed during the current campaign rather than postponed to a vague future agreement. In internal discussions, strategic targets in the Persian Gulf are being repeatedly raised, particularly Kharg Island, through which most of Iran’s oil exports pass. Some in Israel believe that a U.S. move to take control of the island is not unrealistic and would be the only effective way to strike at the regime’s financial lifeline and limit its leverage in the region.

At the same time, Israeli officials express little confidence in Europe’s response. The prevailing view in Yerushalayim is that European governments have yet to fully grasp the scale of the threat and are opting to delay action in order to avoid opening another front with a country that could disrupt global oil flows through Hormuz. Even unusual developments, such as Iran launching missiles toward Diego Garcia, have not significantly shifted Europe’s cautious stance.

{Matzav.com}