Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu backed a Mossad strategy aimed at triggering a popular revolt in Iran at the outset of the war, but has grown increasingly frustrated that the expected uprising has not taken place, Times of Israel reports.

The New York Times, citing current and former US and Israeli intelligence officials, reported that Netanyahu raised the proposal during discussions with President Donald Trump as part of efforts to gain support for military action against Iran.

However, officials in both Washington and Israel are now expressing doubt that regime change is imminent, with current conditions seen as unfavorable for a mass uprising. Concerns over the regime’s violent crackdown on earlier protests, along with fears stemming from the ongoing US-Israeli air campaign, have dampened public willingness to take to the streets.

According to the report, expanding on earlier coverage by Channel 12, Mossad Director David Barnea presented Netanyahu with a plan ahead of the war that envisioned eliminating key Iranian leadership figures and then using intelligence operations to “galvanize the Iranian opposition,” igniting mass unrest in Iran by fomenting riots and other acts of resistance via intelligence operations, potentially leading to the regime’s collapse. The proposal was also reportedly shared with US officials at the White House.

The strategy was intended to bring about a rapid end to the conflict through internal upheaval. Instead, Iran’s leadership has consolidated its position, a scenario that some US officials had anticipated. While internal rivalries among religious factions could lead to infighting, the report noted that such a scenario would be unlikely to produce a democratic outcome. Suggestions that Kurdish militias might intervene have also not materialized.

Israeli officials have not entirely abandoned hopes for regime change, but the absence of widespread unrest has reportedly left Netanyahu disappointed. “Behind the scenes,” it said, Netanyahu “has expressed frustration that Mossad’s promises to foment revolt in Iran have not materialized.”

During an early wartime security meeting, the prime minister “complained that the plan was not working,” and vented that Trump “could decide to halt the campaign at any moment.”

A Channel 12 report aired Monday appeared to push back on the timeline, indicating that Mossad assessments suggest the regime could still collapse and that the Iranian public might eventually rise up, but only toward the later stages of the war, with the process potentially taking months or longer.

The Times also noted that former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen had been skeptical about the prospects for regime change and had instead focused on weakening Iran through sanctions and targeted killings of nuclear scientists.

By contrast, Barnea has prioritized efforts aimed at toppling the regime over the past year, with expectations that a wave of protests would emerge following the opening phase of the military campaign.

American officials, along with some Israeli counterparts, have remained doubtful that the war alone would bring about the collapse of Iran’s government.

One factor cited in the report is the reluctance of ordinary Iranians to risk their lives by protesting. Nate Swanson, a former member of the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team led by Steve Witkoff, said that fear plays a major role.

He told the Times he had never seen a “serious plan” to cause an Iranian revolt.

“A lot of protesters are not coming into the street because they’ll get shot,” Swanson told the Times. “They’re going to get slaughtered. That’s one thing. But the second thing is that there’s a good chunk of people who just want a better life, and they’re just sidelined right now. They don’t like the regime, but they don’t want to die opposing it. That 60 percent is going to stay home.”

He said, “You still have fervent anti-regime folks, but they’re not armed, and they’re not bringing the majority of the population into the streets.”

In recent days, both Netanyahu and Trump have tempered expectations regarding regime change. Netanyahu has acknowledged uncertainty over whether the Iranian public will rise up, though he reiterated that one of the war’s objectives is “creating the conditions for the Iranian people to grasp their freedom, to control their destiny.”

Israeli officials continue to express cautious optimism that such a shift could eventually occur.

“I think that we need boots on the ground but they’ve got to be Iranian boots, and I think they’re coming,” Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said in an interview with CNN on Sunday. “What we have to focus on now is degrading to the point where they have no power left in this regime. Hopefully, that will trigger this combustion point where the people are able to take charge of their own lives.”

{Matzav.com}