The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to oil traffic, with Iran showing no signs of honoring what the United States said was a non-negotiable condition of Wednesday’s ceasefire, raising urgent questions about whether the truce is worth the paper it’s written on.

A backlog of roughly 3,200 vessels — including 800 tankers and cargo ships — sits stranded west of the strait. Nearly 20,000 mariners remain stuck in the Persian Gulf. No oil tankers have risked the passage in recent days. The waterway that carries one-fifth of the world’s oil supply is, for all practical purposes, shut.

“We’re not seeing any, any, any oil products passing through there,” said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, a data and intelligence company. “So, for all intents and purposes, the strait remains closed. And this is the leverage that Iran has.”

Only a trickle of vessels has moved at all. Three ships passed through Thursday — two Iranian-flagged and one dry bulk carrier. On Wednesday, five vessels transited in total. Those few that are moving are avoiding standard commercial lanes entirely, threading through a corridor near Iran’s Larak Island with some switching off their tracking systems as they pass.

President Donald Trump, who staked the ceasefire deal on Iran’s commitment to reopen the waterway, publicly unloaded on Tehran Thursday. “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” he wrote on Truth Social. Trump had announced the ceasefire as contingent on Iran agreeing to the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the strait — language that could hardly have been clearer.

The head of Abu Dhabi’s national oil company left no room for diplomatic ambiguity. “This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open,” Sultan Al Jaber wrote on LinkedIn Thursday. “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. Iran has made clear — through both its statements and actions — that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage.”

Iran, it turns out, has demands. According to the Financial Times, Tehran is seeking a toll of $1 per barrel of oil transiting the strait, to be paid in cryptocurrency. Iranian state media said Wednesday the strait would remain closed in retaliation for continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon — attacks Washington insists fall outside the ceasefire’s scope.

Even if Iran were to declare the strait open tomorrow, analysts warn it would take far more than a statement to bring shipping back. “We don’t know whether the Strait of Hormuz is mined. Even if it isn’t, the risk of being hit by a missile or a drone is a big enough deterrent,” Smith said. “No one’s willing to take the chance.” War-risk insurance remains available in some cases but only at steep premiums with added restrictions — costs that make the math unworkable for most operators.

The economic fallout is already spreading. Cargo is being rerouted through ports in Oman and along the UAE’s east coast, tacking roughly two weeks onto voyage times and pushing costs up by about 25%.

With the ceasefire’s central promise unfulfilled, senior US and Iranian officials are set to meet Saturday in Pakistan for talks on a permanent agreement — negotiations that will take place against a backdrop of a strait that, whatever the paperwork says, remains closed.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)