SOFIA, Bulgaria (AP/VINnews) — An exit poll in Bulgaria suggested Sunday that a center-left coalition led by Rumen Radev is set to win the country’s parliamentary election, though it may fall short of securing an outright majority.

The survey by Trend research group showed the Progressive Bulgaria coalition with 39.2% support, well ahead of the center-right GERB party led by Boyko Borissov, which was projected to receive 15.1%.

Despite the sizable lead, the result is unlikely to be enough for Radev’s bloc to form a single-party government, setting the stage for potentially complex coalition negotiations.

Radev has taken a measured foreign policy stance, including on Israel and the war in Gaza. He has condemned Hamas’ attacks and affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, while also urging restraint and humanitarian protections for civilians — reflecting a broader European approach.

At the same time, Radev has a record of positive engagement with Israel and the Jewish community. During a 2018 visit to Jerusalem, he described Israel as “an example of a model state,” praised its innovation and national cohesion, and said relations between the two countries were “better than ever.” He also emphasized that Bulgaria’s Jewish community “was and remains an integral part” of the country’s society and highlighted Bulgaria’s historic role in saving its Jewish population during World War II.

The poll indicated voter turnout at 43.4%, with as many as six parties expected to surpass the 4% threshold required to enter parliament, pointing to a fragmented legislature.

If confirmed, the outcome would extend Bulgaria’s recent pattern of political uncertainty, with competing factions forced to negotiate alliances in order to form a functioning government.