Growing uncertainty is surrounding the condition—and even the possible survival—of Mojtaba Khamenei, as reports and speculation intensify regarding the state of Iran’s leadership at a sensitive moment for the regime.

According to emerging reports, there are increasing signs that Iranian authorities may be deliberately concealing the true extent of Khamenei’s condition, projecting an image of stability while serious developments may be unfolding behind the scenes.

Israeli analyst Amit Segal addressed the issue Thursday on Channel 12 News, noting that the available information is both limited and questionable, particularly since most of it originates from within Iran itself.

Segal said the reports suggest Khamenei may have suffered severe injuries, including the loss of a leg and the need for complex facial reconstruction, but is reportedly refusing treatment out of concern that his condition would be exposed. According to a report in The New York Times, Iran’s president—who has medical training—is personally overseeing his care, adding another layer of intrigue to the situation.

A central question now being raised is whether Khamenei is even alive, or whether the regime is maintaining an illusion of leadership to preserve internal stability. Segal said there are voices in Israel openly entertaining that possibility: “Assuming Iran’s president did not share the full information, it is worth considering another possibility — that he may no longer be with us. That is a possibility that some in Israel support. They have no proof of it, but they say: ‘Look, all the information about his existence relies on second-tier sources.'”

Further suspicion has been fueled by the conduct of Iran’s political leadership, which in some cases appears to be acting contrary to established directives attributed to the supreme leader. Segal pointed to the Iranian president’s recent visit to Pakistan, where he displayed what he described as “extreme and fundamentalist rigidity,” while at the same time deviating from Khamenei’s known position against engaging in certain negotiations.

“Do you allow yourself to act in contradiction to the leader’s position, or perhaps you believe there is a reasonable chance that the instruction never came from the leader at all — because he cannot deliver it, or because he simply does not exist?” Segal asked.

Until clear and verifiable proof of life emerges, the uncertainty is expected to persist. “It is worth keeping this possibility in mind until we see him holding today’s newspaper. And I think it will take time before that happens,” Segal concluded.

Observers note that authoritarian regimes have historically concealed the deaths of leaders for days or even weeks in order to manage succession struggles—raising the possibility that a similar scenario could now be unfolding in Tehran.