A large majority of Americans say Donald Trump is responsible for the recent spike in gasoline prices, a trend that is creating political challenges for Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey.

The poll, completed earlier this week, found that 77% of registered voters believe Trump holds at least some responsibility for the increase in fuel costs, which followed his decision to enter a war with Iran alongside Israel.

That sentiment cut across party lines, with 55% of Republicans, 82% of independents, and 95% of Democrats saying the president is to blame for higher gas prices.

The survey also showed that 58% of voters—including about 20% of Republicans and roughly two-thirds of independents—said they would be less inclined to support candidates in the November 3 elections who back Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict.

The United States and Israel launched a surprise offensive against Iran in February, resulting in the death of the country’s leader and thousands of casualties. Iran retaliated by striking U.S. allies in the region, damaging oil infrastructure and disrupting about 20% of global oil shipments. Since then, gasoline prices in the U.S. have climbed to roughly $4 per gallon, about $1 higher than before the war began.

The prolonged conflict is putting pressure on household budgets and adding to concerns among Republicans heading into the midterms, where the party faces a difficult path to holding onto its majority in the House and risks losing the Senate as well.

“Right now, it’s bad. People are upset,” said Sarah Chamberlain, strategist and president of the Republican Main Street Partnership that advocates for conservative lawmakers.

“Republicans are obviously very concerned about maintaining the House, but if we can get through the Iran situation by summertime and gas prices drop back down, or at least go down maybe not to quite the level they were prior to the war, then I think we have a really good shot.”

According to the poll, 77% of Americans view fuel prices as a major concern, and respondents were more than twice as likely to expect prices to rise over the next year than to fall.

Trump won the 2024 election after promising to tackle inflation, which had been a major issue during the administration of Joe Biden. He has continued to describe the U.S. economy as strong, including remarks in Las Vegas on April 16, while the White House website promotes what it calls a “GOLDEN AGE.”

However, 70% of those surveyed disagreed with the idea that the economy is booming, and 82% said inflation remains a significant concern.

“Trump has made affordability and bringing down prices a cornerstone of the Make America Great Again movement, and with costs going up in the country, that is a hard circle to square, messaging wise,” said Erin Maguire, a Republican strategist.

Maguire added that Republican candidates will need to carefully balance their messaging on the Iran war while emphasizing the administration’s efforts to reduce taxes.

The poll also indicated that Republicans’ traditional advantage on economic issues has narrowed considerably. The latest survey, conducted between April 15 and April 20, found that 38% of voters favor the Republican approach to the economy, compared to 37% who prefer the Democrats. That one-point margin is a sharp drop from the 14-point lead Republicans held shortly after Trump began his second term in January 2025.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,557 adults nationwide, including 3,577 registered voters, and carries a margin of error of two percentage points.