Official negotiations over the next decade of American military assistance to Israel will begin next month, with both sides fielding senior delegations as the current $38 billion agreement approaches its 2028 expiration.

Israel’s team will be led by Defense Ministry Director-General Amir Baram and will include Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Leiter, along with representatives from the defense and finance ministries, the IDF and the National Security Council. The American delegation will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with senior adviser Michael Needham and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee.

The new framework is expected to look fundamentally different from its predecessor. Rather than a flat annual commitment, aid would decline gradually each year, with the goal of reaching zero by 2038. In its place, the two countries would deepen joint development of advanced weapons systems, with Israeli officials eyeing directed-energy weapons, high-powered lasers and next-generation air defenses against hypersonic missiles and AI-enabled threats.

Under the current agreement, signed in 2016 and in effect since 2019, Israel receives $3.3 billion annually for major weapons purchases and roughly $500 million for air defense development — totaling approximately 15% of its annual defense budget.

The shift reflects changing realities on both sides. American political support for military aid to Israel has eroded across party lines: progressive Democrats have grown increasingly critical of Israel, while an “America First” contingent within the GOP questions whether unconditional support aligns with Trump’s isolationist posture. Meanwhile, a booming U.S. defense industry flush with Ukraine-related orders has made Israeli contracts less commercially vital.

Israeli defense officials say the country can sustain its military buildup without American funding — but not without cost. The defense budget has already swelled to 144 billion shekels, with the defense establishment pushing for 177 billion. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed adding roughly 35 billion shekels annually to the base defense budget over the next decade to offset the phaseout of U.S. aid. Officials acknowledge, however, that renewed conflict in Iran, Lebanon or Gaza could drive those figures significantly higher — and that the spending increase will come at the expense of health, welfare and education.

Talks are expected to last approximately four months, though officials noted the pace could be affected by developments on active security fronts.

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