New data from the global betting platform Polymarket suggests a rapid shift at the top of Israel’s political outlook, with Israeli Prime Minister Binyomin Netanyahu overtaking Naftali Bennett just one day after Bennett announced a joint political alliance with Yair Lapid.

According to the latest figures, Netanyahu has climbed to 42 percent, while Bennett has dropped to 39 percent. The numbers indicate that the political move, which was expected to strengthen Bennett’s position, may have had the opposite effect in the eyes of market participants.

The most striking figure in the data relates to Bennett’s new partner. Polymarket currently gives Lapid just a 1.4 percent chance of forming the next government. Gadi Eisenkot is listed in third place, with approximately 14 percent.

The trend marks a notable reversal. Bennett, who had previously approached levels near 60 percent, has seen his standing decline following the formalization of the alliance. Netanyahu, by contrast, has regained the top spot and reestablished a lead.

From a political standpoint, the figures may suggest that Bennett’s partnership with Lapid is not being viewed as a clear advantage. Bennett had spent considerable time cultivating an image as an independent, right-leaning but broadly acceptable alternative capable of attracting both right-wing and centrist voters who were reluctant to back Netanyahu. The alliance with Lapid, based on current Polymarket pricing, may be blurring that distinct positioning.

Supporters of the move continue to frame it as a strategic effort to consolidate forces and prevent fragmentation within the bloc opposed to Netanyahu. Critics, however, see the data as highlighting a deeper concern: while Bennett has gained a prominent political partner, he may have sacrificed part of the unique appeal that initially positioned him as a viable challenger.

It is important to note that Polymarket is not an election poll, but rather a betting market that reflects real-time sentiment among traders. It does not measure seats or determine coalition outcomes. Still, as an indicator of how political developments are being interpreted, the early reaction to the Bennett-Lapid alliance appears far from enthusiastic.

{Matzav.com}