With the Memorial Day weekend approaching and the busy summer driving season about to begin, rising gasoline prices are emerging as a potential political challenge for President Donald Trump and Republicans heading into the November midterm elections. Analysts warn that unless tensions in the Middle East ease, fuel prices in the U.S. could climb to record levels.

According to GasBuddy, the national average price for gasoline reached $4.52 per gallon as of Tuesday evening. Prices first crossed the $4 mark in late March, a level not seen since August 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Prices vary significantly by region, with California posting the highest statewide average at $6.14 per gallon, GasBuddy reported.

The spike in gasoline prices has followed a sharp rise in crude oil markets, driven largely by concerns over disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The global Brent crude benchmark has increased by 58% since the conflict began.

“The Strait of Hormuz shutdown continues to slowly push oil and gasoline prices higher, but we’ve also seen refining issues that have enhanced some of those increases,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said.

Additional supply pressures emerged last week when BP’s refinery in Whiting, Indiana—capable of processing 440,000 barrels per day—temporarily shut down part of its operations due to a power outage. The company later confirmed that operations had resumed.

“If the Strait ⁠of Hormuz does not open, I would expect that gas prices this summer would ⁠probably stay above $4.50 a gallon,” De Haan said.

Before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passed daily through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy markets.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that U.S. gasoline inventories are being depleted more quickly than usual for this time of year. Their projections suggest stockpiles could drop below 200 million barrels by late August, approaching historically low summer levels.

Government data showed that U.S. gasoline inventories declined by more than 6 million barrels last week, bringing total stocks to 222.3 million barrels as of April 24—the lowest level since December and more than 2 million barrels below the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, demand averaged 8.95 million barrels over four weeks, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the same period last year.

Morgan Stanley added that consumer demand has remained steady even with prices above $4 per gallon. “It is not driving the draws but it’s also not soft enough to slow the supply-driven stock draws.”

U.S. gasoline futures were trading at approximately $3.64 per gallon.