A classified CIA report presented this week to senior U.S. officials concludes that Iran may be able to withstand the Trump administration’s naval blockade for roughly four months before experiencing a serious economic breakdown, according to a report published Thursday by The Washington Post.

That internal evaluation stands in contrast to repeated statements from the White House suggesting that Tehran is close to collapse.

According to individuals familiar with the intelligence findings, Iran has managed to preserve a substantial portion of its missile capabilities despite weeks of strikes carried out by U.S. and Israeli forces.

One American official indicated that Iran still holds approximately 70% of its pre-conflict missile inventory and about 75% of its mobile launching systems. The same official noted that the country has reopened underground storage sites and repaired parts of its weapons infrastructure that had been damaged.

These conclusions differ from comments made Wednesday by President Donald Trump, who described Iran’s missile arsenal as being largely destroyed.

”Our missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” Trump said at the White House.

Even as administration figures continue to emphasize the success of the blockade, they also acknowledge that Iran remains capable of resisting.

A senior U.S. intelligence official told the Post: ”The president’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly likewise maintained that the economic campaign is rapidly taking a toll on Tehran.

”During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily,” Kelly said. ”Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports.

“The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”

At the same time, officials cited in the report said Iran has adjusted to the pressure by stockpiling oil at sea, cutting back on production to protect infrastructure, and possibly preparing alternative land-based export routes through Central Asia.

One U.S. official suggested that the CIA’s estimate may actually understate Iran’s ability to endure.

”The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” the official said.

”Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”

Experts also pointed to Iran’s drone arsenal as an ongoing danger to international shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Former Israeli intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz told the Post that even relatively small-scale drone strikes could disrupt global oil flows, since insurers would likely refuse to cover vessels operating in such conditions.

Citrinowicz said that while there have been tactical successes on the battlefield, the long-term strategic picture remains unclear.

”The problem is they don’t think they need to capitulate,” he said.

He later added on social media that the conflict could ultimately reinforce Iran’s leadership rather than weaken it, leaving the country with meaningful missile strength and ongoing uranium enrichment capabilities despite continued U.S. and Israeli military pressure.