US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is shaping war strategy and negotiations with the Trump administration, though his precise authority within a fractured regime remains unclear and his whereabouts have not been visually confirmed since he sustained serious injuries during the strike that killed his father.

Khamenei has not appeared publicly since the attack at the war’s outset that killed the prior supreme leader and top military officials. Intelligence officials say he communicates only through in-person meetings or couriers, avoiding all electronic communications. He continues receiving medical treatment for burns and injuries sustained in the strike, according to CNN sources.

Despite Iranian claims of Khamenei’s good health, US intelligence officials are skeptical of that. While he appears involved in approving major decisions, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are managing day-to-day operations, one source said.

The ambiguity has complicated Trump administration negotiations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged Friday that Iran’s “system is still highly fractured, and it’s dysfunctional as well.”

Iran has endured significant military degradation—roughly two-thirds of its missile launchers survived US strikes, while its navy was largely destroyed. CIA assessments suggest Iran can withstand the ongoing American blockade for up to four more months without complete economic collapse, though the war has severed trade and crushed revenue.

The ceasefire, now past one month, has allowed Iran to dig out buried weapons systems. US and Iranian forces have traded shots in recent days despite the truce, as both claim control of the Strait of Hormuz with traffic nearly halted.

Ghalibaf led initial talks in Islamabad last month but departed without agreement. Trump subsequently extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing Iran’s need to formulate a unified proposal. Iran was reviewing the latest American proposal as of Friday.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)