Iran is preparing for a rapid, high-volume war footing that would see hundreds of ballistic missiles fired each day at Gulf energy infrastructure, refineries and port facilities, The New York Times reported, as a fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Washington continues to fray.

The plans, described to the Times by people familiar with Iranian military thinking, envision sustained, saturation-style barrages aimed at overwhelming Gulf air defenses and crippling the region’s oil and gas export capacity within days. The reported strategy marks a shift from the more limited tit-for-tat exchanges that characterized the opening weeks of the conflict and reflects what analysts have described as Iran’s central wartime doctrine: leveraging its missile arsenal and proxy network to dominate the Persian Gulf and turn regional infrastructure into bargaining chips.

A parallel front is expected to open in the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Houthis are positioned to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the 18-mile passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that funnels roughly 10 to 12 percent of global seaborne trade toward the Suez Canal. Houthi officials have repeatedly threatened closure in recent weeks, with Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour saying the group is “conducting this battle in stages, and closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is among our options.”

The reported plans suggest Tehran is preparing for a scenario in which the ceasefire announced April 7 collapses entirely. That truce has already been tested by repeated incidents, including a missile and drone barrage on the United Arab Emirates earlier this month and a naval exchange between U.S. destroyers and Iranian forces inside the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamabad talks between U.S. and Iranian officials, intended to convert the ceasefire into a permanent settlement, collapsed without a deal and were followed by a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Iran has effectively kept the Strait of Hormuz closed since the war began on Feb. 28, channeling commercial shipping through a newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority that maritime law experts say violates international law. With Hormuz shut, Saudi Arabia has rerouted roughly five million barrels of crude per day through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, every barrel of which now sits within Houthi missile range. A simultaneous closure of Bab el-Mandeb would create what energy analysts have called a “double chokepoint” scenario, severing the Gulf from both its eastern and western export routes and forcing global shipping around the Cape of Good Hope, a detour that adds 10 to 14 days and as much as $1.8 million in fuel costs per round trip.

Gulf energy infrastructure has already absorbed substantial damage. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on long-term supply contracts after Iranian missiles struck the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility, causing extensive fires that included damage to a Shell gas-to-liquids plant. The UAE suspended operations at the Habshan natural gas processing facility, the country’s largest, following an attack that sparked a major fire. Two refineries in Kuwait, the Bapco Energies refinery in Bahrain, the Lanaz refinery in northern Iraq, the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi-operated ports at Yanbu and Fujairah have all been hit. Saudi Arabia’s Manifa and Khurais production facilities have each lost roughly 300,000 barrels per day in capacity since being targeted.

The cumulative damage has driven Brent crude from roughly $72 a barrel on the eve of the war to above $110, with Goldman Sachs analysts warning that a credible Houthi move on Bab el-Mandeb could send prices toward $120. Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd began rerouting vessels around southern Africa in March. War-risk insurance premiums in the region have risen more than 1,000 percent since the conflict began.

Iranian strategic doctrine, developed over decades since the Iran-Iraq war, has long held that the country’s ability to dominate the Persian Gulf is its single most important deterrent. Tehran demonstrated the concept on a smaller scale in September 2019, when a drone and missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility temporarily halved Saudi oil exports. The plans reported by the Times appear to envision an attack of that character executed continuously and at scale.

Despite the loss of senior commanders in the opening U.S. and Israeli strikes and significant degradation of its military, Iran’s leadership has remained defiant. The Houthis, who declared “Hour Zero” for their naval blockade in mid-March and have launched at least eight missile barrages at Israel since the ceasefire took effect, have so far refrained from striking commercial vessels in 2026. Analysts say that restraint is calibrated rather than principled, and could end the moment Tehran signals.

“All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships coming through, and that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea,” Rami Khoury, a Middle East analyst, told Al Jazeera. “That would be a red line.”

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