LONDON (VINnews) — A leading Jewish demographer is warning that the future of the Jewish people over the next century will be shaped by shifting population trends, rising religious polarization, assimilation pressures and the growing centrality of Israel to Jewish identity worldwide.

In a new policy paper released Tuesday by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research, Professor Sergio DellaPergola said the Jewish future will depend not only on demographic changes but also on how Jews define identity, maintain communal continuity and navigate relations with wider society.

DellaPergola, a renowned Israeli demographer and president of the institute’s European Jewish Demography Unit, said three pillars will continue to define Jewish existence: the State of Israel, Jewish communities in the Diaspora and the increasingly complex relationship between the two.

The report predicts Israel is likely to become home to the majority of the world’s Jewish population within coming decades, a shift DellaPergola said could dramatically reshape Jewish political, cultural and religious life globally.

At the same time, the paper warns that many Diaspora communities face long-term demographic challenges, including aging populations, low birth rates and assimilation.

Among the report’s major findings is that higher birth rates among more religious Jewish groups — particularly charedi communities in Israel — are expected to significantly alter the internal makeup of the global Jewish population.

The study also predicts antisemitism will persist in evolving forms and that migration trends among Jews will continue to be heavily influenced by security concerns, political instability and economic conditions.

DellaPergola argued that future Jewish leadership will require stronger mechanisms for cooperation across increasingly diverse Jewish communities and a more realistic assessment of emerging social and political challenges.

Rather than offering precise forecasts, the paper examines what DellaPergola describes as the major structural forces that have shaped Jewish history and are likely to continue influencing the Jewish people in the decades ahead.