The best agreement the United States and Iran could realistically reach on the nuclear file would likely resemble the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated under the Obama administration, former senior Israeli defense official and Iran nuclear expert Avner Vilan said Monday in an interview with 103FM, as reported by the Jerusalem Post.

“At best, we will get an agreement like Obama’s deal,” Vilan told the Israeli radio station. “There is a period in which the Iranians do not advance toward a nuclear weapon and are under supervision, which is fine. But regarding ballistic missiles, what we hit, we hit. They were not part of the agreement, and the Iranians will be able to take the money they receive and build themselves up.”

According to Vilan, the contacts now underway between Washington and Tehran could yield only a partial agreement, one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease economic pressure on Iran, and defer the nuclear question to a later phase. Israel, he told 103FM, is watching the prospect of an interim arrangement closely, particularly amid reports that Iran could agree to reopen the Strait as part of a broader understanding with the United States.

“As it appears, the most urgent issue is reopening Hormuz. The Iranians need pressure relief,” Vilan said in the interview. He told the station the reported framework could include the release of Iranian funds held in the West, followed by a 60-day window for negotiations on the nuclear file. Iran would then decide whether to accept or reject a nuclear arrangement potentially involving the removal of enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions.

“That is the best result they could receive,” Vilan said. “If and when they reach that point, the regime will survive for a very long time because it will have a continuing economic oxygen line. Nobody is talking about the missiles or the proxies.”

Vilan warned 103FM listeners that sanctions relief could ultimately entrench the Iranian government rather than weaken it. “Regime change does not look like it is going to happen. On the contrary, we are even strengthening it. It is beginning to receive money,” he said.

Addressing Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium is necessary but not sufficient to produce a sound nuclear agreement, Vilan said. “The 60% is perhaps the most urgent issue and a necessary condition, but it is not enough for a good nuclear agreement from a professional standpoint,” he told the station. “We need to ensure Iran is far enough away from obtaining a weapon.”

That, Vilan said, requires guarantees that Iran retains no nuclear material, that its centrifuges remain under supervision, and that it does not operate fortified sites capable of industrial-scale enrichment. “We need to make sure Iran has no path to advance toward nuclear material for a bomb,” he said.

Vilan told 103FM that President Donald Trump now faces three possible courses on Iran. The first is a return to intensive military pressure. “He can go back to heavy fighting, hit them hard, but in the end, we will probably return to roughly the same point,” Vilan said.

The second, Vilan said, is a staged agreement he described as “Hormuz for Hormuz,” which could later evolve into a full nuclear deal. He cautioned the station’s listeners that such a process risks stalling and leaving the two sides locked in an open-ended interim arrangement.

The third option, he said, is simply to wait, an approach he told 103FM the US president does not appear inclined to pursue. “We understand that Trump does not want to wait right now,” Vilan said, citing pressure over oil prices, Gulf state concerns about regional instability, and the possibility that Iran could attempt to outlast the current US administration.

Vilan closed the interview by warning that the diplomatic picture could shift rapidly and that time was not necessarily on Israel’s side. “It is possible that in another 24 hours, we will have a completely different conversation about a return to fighting,” he told 103FM.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)