The era of bargain airfare may be coming to an end, as soaring jet fuel prices continue hammering the global airline industry and experts warn that travelers are unlikely to see ticket prices fall anytime soon — even if tensions with Iran ease and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

According to a report published by Mako, aviation industry analysts believe the sharp rise in jet fuel costs has already fundamentally altered airline operating expenses, making prolonged higher fares all but inevitable.

Since the outbreak of fighting and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the price of jet fuel has nearly doubled. Fuel remains one of the largest expenses for airlines worldwide, meaning the impact is being felt across the industry — from low-cost carriers such as Wizz Air, easyJet, and Ryanair to traditional full-service airlines.

The collapse of American low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines has become a major warning sign for the industry. While the company was already struggling financially, the dramatic increase in fuel prices was reportedly viewed as one of the factors that accelerated its shutdown and led to roughly 17,000 layoffs.

Industry officials estimate that even after shipping routes fully reopen, it could take months before cheaper fuel once again reaches global supply chains and translates into lower ticket prices for consumers.

Current forecasts range from roughly three months under the most optimistic scenarios to as long as 18 months under more pessimistic projections.

In the meantime, airlines are already scaling back operations. Routes that were only marginally profitable before are increasingly becoming unsustainable, leading carriers to reduce flight frequencies and cut seat capacity.

According to aviation analytics company Cirium, airlines removed more than 75,000 flights and approximately 9 million seats from summer schedules during April alone.

The crisis is hitting low-cost carriers especially hard because their business models rely heavily on ultra-cheap fares and narrow profit margins. Ryanair, Wizz Air, and easyJet have all reportedly acknowledged growing financial pressure linked to the war and rising fuel expenses.

For Israeli travelers, the situation is even more complicated. Since the October 7 attacks, many foreign airlines have not fully resumed service to Israel, while the presence of American aerial refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport has reportedly added further congestion and operational disruptions.

Wizz Air is expected to resume only limited operations, easyJet is not expected to return before August, and Ryanair has still not announced a formal return date.

Despite the turmoil, tourism industry officials believe routes to Israel remain profitable for many low-cost carriers and therefore are unlikely to be among the first routes eliminated entirely.

At the same time, the strengthening of the Israeli shekel against the dollar has somewhat softened the financial blow for Israeli passengers by offsetting part of the fare increases.

Still, aviation analysts say the broader picture is becoming increasingly clear: even if a diplomatic agreement with Iran is eventually reached, airfare prices are unlikely to return anytime soon to the levels travelers had become accustomed to in previous years.

Within the industry, many now believe that significantly more expensive flights are rapidly becoming the new normal.

{Matzav.com}