New census projections indicate that non-white populations are expected to outnumber whites in the United States for the first time by 2050, with dramatic demographic shifts forecast across much of the country — including major changes in states such as New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

According to figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau, the transformation is being driven by a combination of international immigration, domestic migration patterns, and declining birthrates among white Americans.

In 1980, approximately 80 percent of the U.S. population was white. Census projections now estimate that figure will fall to 47 percent by 2050 and decline even further to 44 percent by 2060.

The demographic changes at the state level are expected to be even more dramatic.

As recently as 2000, only three states — California, Hawaii, and New Mexico — had white populations below 50 percent.

Hawaii has never had a white majority population. In the 2000 Census, whites accounted for 46 percent of California’s population and 45 percent in New Mexico.

By 2020, the shifts had accelerated significantly. Maryland’s white population fell to 47 percent, Nevada’s to 46 percent, and Texas dropped to 40 percent.

Census projections now indicate that by 2050, another ten states are expected to see whites become a minority population.

Those states include New York, where whites are projected to make up 46 percent of residents by 2050; New Jersey at 37 percent; Connecticut at 45 percent; Delaware at 47 percent; Florida at 39 percent; Georgia at 37 percent; Arizona at 43 percent; Illinois at 49 percent; Oklahoma at 49 percent; and Washington state at 49 percent.

The trends are expected to continue beyond that point, with whites projected to become either minorities or near-minorities in a total of 24 states by 2060.

Among the additional states expected to experience major demographic shifts are Alaska, where whites are projected to account for 50 percent of the population by 2060; Louisiana at 51 percent; Massachusetts at 46 percent; Minnesota at 51 percent; Mississippi at 51 percent; North Carolina at 49 percent; Rhode Island at 47 percent; and Virginia at 47 percent.

The numbers underscore the scale of demographic change that has swept across the country over the last several decades.

West Virginia remains the least ethnically diverse state in the nation. In 2020, whites made up 89 percent of the state’s population, and projections suggest that figure will only decline modestly to 86 percent by 2050.

The Census Bureau projections also outline state-by-state declines over the coming decades.

In Arizona, whites are projected to decline from 53 percent of the population in 2020 to 43 percent by 2050 and 39 percent by 2060.

California’s white population is projected to fall from 35 percent in 2020 to just 23 percent by 2050 and 20 percent by 2060.

Connecticut is expected to decline from 63 percent white in 2020 to 45 percent by 2050 and 39 percent by 2060.

Florida is projected to shift from 52 percent white in 2020 to 39 percent by 2050 and 36 percent by 2060.

Georgia’s white population is forecast to decline from 50 percent in 2020 to 37 percent by 2050 and 33 percent by 2060.

In New Jersey, whites are projected to fall from 52 percent of the population in 2020 to 37 percent by 2050 and 32 percent by 2060.

New York is expected to decline from 52 percent white in 2020 to 46 percent by 2050 and 43 percent by 2060.

Texas, which already had a white population of just 40 percent in 2020, is projected to drop to 27 percent by 2050 and 23 percent by 2060.

Washington state is projected to decline from 64 percent white in 2020 to 49 percent by 2050 and 44 percent by 2060.

The projections reflect what census analysts describe as one of the most sweeping demographic transformations in modern American history.