JERUSALEM (VINnews) — Donald Trump’s announcement (made after speaking for an hour with Netanyahu) that Israel and Hezbollah would cease firing at one another, and his mention of the embarrassing fact that the United States had communicated with the Shiite terrorist organization in order to reach that understanding, is another in a series of Trump’s public statements that create the impression that Israel is little more than a puppet state and that the real authority is the President of the United States.

Beyond the obvious humiliation arising not only from the tone but also from the substance of the announcement – a forced ceasefire and the cancellation of a planned strike in Beirut after explicit commitments by the Prime Minister and Defense Minister, after the IDF Arabic-language spokesperson’s warning, and after images of a mass evacuation from an area that was expected to become an active battlefield – it is difficult to ignore the genuine danger of the move.

The current situation, according to Maariv’s political commentator Mati Tuchfeld, represents a return to the old concept that “quiet will be answered with quiet,” handing the initiative back to Hezbollah and further restricting the IDF’s freedom of action at a time when residents of northern Israel continue to face attacks and are demanding stronger responses.

The political consequences could also be significant, especially with elections approaching.

For a long time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tried to align the timing of elections with security and diplomatic developments. According to Tuchfeld, Netanyahu’s long-term plan had envisioned a very different regional reality by now: a different regime in Iran and Israel preparing to sign a historic peace agreement with the Iranian people, similar to relations before the Islamic Revolution.

Not only has that not happened, but even less ambitious diplomatic achievementssuch as a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia appear distant despite pressure from President Donald Trump on Saudi leadership.

By the fourth week of Operation “Roaring Lion”, Netanyahu understood that regime change in Iran would not occur. Nevertheless, he believed he could still claim a clear victory. Trump’s sudden ceasefire announcement undermined that message as well.

While Netanyahu may still be able to point to achievements against Iran’s nuclear program, even if not permanently eliminating it, the central test by which he will now be judged is Lebanon. The announcement of a forced ceasefire casts a heavy shadow over his ability to present the campaign there as a success.

Many within the Likud party have long believed that the decisive political battle would be fought over Lebanon. Gaza, it argues, is largely a settled issue; Iran has been weakened; but Lebanon remains an active challenge.

Although Israel’s territorial gains remain in place and are not insignificant, they fall far short of earlier expectations. Netanyahu will not be able to present the end of the campaign as the promised strategic transformation if the current round, like previous rounds, ends with another ceasefire.

This is not what was promised to the residents of the north, who were encouraged to return to their homes after months of displacement. It is not what was promised to the Israeli public when Hezbollah launched its first rockets in solidarity with Iran during the Israeli and American strikes.

Netanyahu, who continually seeks to synchronize political and security timetables and therefore insists on elections in October rather than an earlier date favored by charedi parties and some of his advisers, understands that the upcoming election campaign may be decided in part by developments in Lebanon.