JBizNewsTop CEOs brace for downturn, warn US economy will worsen in next 6 months
Corporate leadership across America has seemingly lost faith in the current trajectory of the U.S. economy, swinging sharply from optimism to pessimism in just three months.
The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, in collaboration with The Business Council, conducted its quarterly survey of 141 CEOs and found that the overall score fell to 47 in Q2 from 59 in Q1. Any reading below 50 means negative outlooks outnumber positive ones.
Only 15% of CEOs say the economy is better than six months ago, down from 39% in Q1, while 47% say it’s worse, up from 8%.
Additionally, 40% of respondents expect economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, compared to 13% who felt that way last quarter.
“CEO confidence fell back into negative territory in Q2 2026, reversing the surge in optimism in the first quarter,” Conference Board Chief Economist Dana M Peterson said in a press release. “CEOs reported that the economy is materially worse now than it was six months ago and expected economic conditions to weaken further over the next six months.
“Regarding their own industries, CEO assessments about current conditions and expectations in six months deteriorated since last quarter,” she continued.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its final reading of fourth-quarter GDP less than one month ago, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.5% in the three-month period covering October, November and December.
That figure was lower than the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who had estimated GDP growth of 0.7%
“Despite a solid 2.1% expansion for the full year, 2025 will likely be remembered as the year that ‘could have been,’” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco previously told FOX Business. “The outlook for 2026 appears even less favorable. The Middle East conflict is set to exacerbate existing headwinds, with higher inflation, weaker real disposable income growth, and tighter financial conditions further weighing on economic momentum.”
The business slowdown is hitting CEOs’ future plans as well, with corporations signaling belt-tightening, shrinking hiring plans and preparing for potential layoffs..
Thirty-one percent of respondents expect to reduce their workforce over the next six months, now outpacing the 28% who plan to expand hiring; planned wage hikes are losing steam, concentrating in the 3% to 4% range; and 53% of CEOs reported “some problems in some areas” when hiring.
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“The ‘low-hire, low-fire’ economy remains in place,” Vice Chairman of The Business Council and Chair Emeritus of The Conference Board Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. also said. “The share of CEOs planning to increase the size of their workforce over the next 12 months edged down, while those expecting job cuts rose slightly.”
“Among top business risks impacting their industries, CEOs became more worried about cyber risks, with nearly two-thirds ranking it a top risk in Q2. Geopolitical and AI & new technology risks also remained top concerns,” he added. “Risks associated with supply chains and energy rose in importance and intensity in Q2.”
FOX Business’ Eric Revell contributed to this report.