Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, founder of the “HaBitchonistim” movement, rejected the claim that Israel erred in striking Beirut on Sunday.

In an interview with Kol Chai on Monday morning, he said that Iran’s unusually sharp response shows just how much pressure Hezbollah is under and how concerned Tehran is about losing its Lebanese proxy.

“It’s clear they didn’t make a mistake,” Avivi said, saying that Iran fully understands the level of force Israel is capable of using against them, and nevertheless chose to launch missiles.

“This reflects Hezbollah’s severe strategic distress,” he said. “Iran has a deep fear of losing Hezbollah.”

Avivi noted that this is the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel in response to a strike in Dahiyeh. In his view, this indicates that Israel’s attack in Beirut was perceived in Tehran as a real threat to Hezbollah’s survival, to the point that Iran was willing to risk another confrontation with Israel.

Avivi also addressed the Israeli strikes on a petrochemical complex in Iran, noting that these are key infrastructures that support Iran’s military industry, energy sector, fuel production, and plastics industry.

“Damaging these facilities nearly paralyzes the Iranian economy,” he said, adding that Iran has already drastically reduced its petrochemical production and is being forced to reserve much of its remaining output for domestic needs.

Avivi assessed that the combination of US sanctions, the economic crisis, infrastructure damage, and expected shortages of electricity and water during the summer could lead to renewed protests inside Iran and potentially undermine the regime’s stability.

At the same time, he declined to estimate how long the exchange of attacks would continue, saying that much depends on coordination between Israel and the US and on the evolving policy of President Donald Trump.

“Over the past two months, the policy has become less clear and less decisive,” Avivi said. However, he argued that one element has remained unchanged: the American demand that Iran relinquish its enriched uranium and be prevented from obtaining military nuclear capability.

Avivi maintains that there is no realistic chance Iran will voluntarily give up its uranium stockpile.

“From their perspective, without uranium there is no regime,” he said. “There is no way to achieve that objective without military action.”

According to Avivi, Trump is facing pressure from Gulf states, political actors within the United States, and economic considerations, including energy prices. Nevertheless, he believes that if negotiations fail to produce a genuine Iranian concession, hostilities will resume sooner or later.

“It is impossible to achieve the war’s objectives without bringing them to their knees,” he concluded. “We will have to keep striking, and I hope the current opportunity will be used to do so with full force.”

(YWN Israel Desk—Jerusalem)