By JBizNews Desk

To sell the most expensive stock-market debut in history, the banks pitching SpaceX are handing big investors a number that sounds almost impossible: according to projections shared with institutional clients by Morgan Stanley, reported Friday, Elon Musk’s rocket-and-satellite company could generate roughly $3.4 trillion in annual revenue by 2040.

For perspective, no company in the world comes close to producing that level of revenue today.

The projection sits at the center of an investor roadshow that officially launched this week ahead of SpaceX’s planned Nasdaq debut on June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The company has already set a fixed offering price of $135 per share, an unusual move that bypasses the traditional IPO price-range process and signals confidence from the underwriting banks that demand will be strong.

According to SpaceX’s filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company plans to sell approximately 555.6 million shares, raising about $75 billion. Underwriters retain an option to sell an additional 83.33 million shares if investor demand exceeds expectations, potentially generating another $11.2 billion.

That structure values SpaceX at roughly $1.77 trillion.

Even after the offering, Musk will remain firmly in control. The filing shows he will retain more than 82% of the company’s voting power, ensuring that public investors will own a stake in the company but have little influence over its direction.

If completed at that size, the offering would easily surpass the previous IPO record.

Saudi Aramco’s landmark 2019 public offering raised approximately $29 billion. SpaceX is seeking more than double that amount.

The AI Story Is Driving the Valuation

The central question facing investors is simple:

How do you justify a valuation approaching $1.8 trillion for a company that generated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue last year?

According to presentations shown to investors, the answer is not rockets.

It is artificial intelligence.

Lead underwriter Goldman Sachs is reportedly presenting a financial model that places the overwhelming majority of SpaceX’s future value on its AI division, xAI.

The model projects AI-related revenue growing from approximately $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion by 2030, an increase of roughly one hundredfold in just five years.

Under that forecast, total company revenue would reach approximately $474 billion by 2030.

Within that figure:

• Starlink is projected to generate about $144 billion
• The traditional rocket-launch business is projected to generate approximately $8.3 billion
• The remainder would come primarily from AI operations

In other words, the rockets that made SpaceX famous become a relatively small piece of the investment story.

The real bet is software.

Even More Aggressive Forecasts

Some analysts believe the projections are still too conservative.

Research distributed by Evercore ISI reportedly forecasts that the AI division alone could generate approximately $755 billion in revenue by 2031, with total company revenue exceeding $1 trillion annually.

Those estimates rely heavily on claims in the prospectus regarding the future size of the artificial-intelligence market.

According to the filing, the company estimates that the total addressable market for xAI could eventually reach approximately $26.5 trillion.

That figure dwarfs the roughly $2 trillion opportunity analysts assign to Starlink and SpaceX’s launch operations combined.

The Catch

There is one major complication.

The AI division remains deeply unprofitable.

The prospectus projects that xAI will lose approximately $6.4 billion during 2025, meaning investors are being asked to place enormous value on a business that is still losing significant amounts of money.

That has fueled skepticism among some market observers.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer warned this week that a limited supply of publicly available shares, combined with forced buying by index funds and institutional investors, could drive SpaceX’s market value toward $4 trillion shortly after trading begins.

He also warned that early enthusiasm could eventually fade, leaving late-arriving retail investors exposed if insiders later sell large amounts of stock.

Cramer pointed to recent examples including Cerebras, which surged after its public debut before retreating sharply as trading normalized.

A Potential Headwind

Skeptics received another talking point on Thursday.

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it would not modify its existing rules to accelerate inclusion of newly public companies such as SpaceX into major indexes.

The decision preserves the standard waiting periods and profitability requirements.

That matters because automatic inclusion in indexes often forces large mutual funds and exchange-traded funds to buy shares regardless of valuation. A delay removes one source of guaranteed demand.

The Bigger Picture

For ordinary investors, the appeal is obvious.

This represents the first opportunity to own a stake in a company that has reshaped the launch industry, built one of the world’s largest satellite networks, and become one of the most recognizable names in technology.

The risk is equally clear.

The valuation already assumes a future that has not yet arrived, with much of the company’s projected worth tied to AI revenue streams that remain largely theoretical.

One detail buried in the amended filing illustrates how interconnected the AI industry has become.

SpaceX disclosed that Anthropic is both a customer and a competitor to its xAI division, highlighting the increasingly tangled relationships developing across the artificial-intelligence sector.

Pricing is scheduled for June 11, with trading expected to begin on June 12.

After years of Musk insisting SpaceX would remain private, Wall Street is about to determine whether investors are willing to pay for a future measured not in billions, but in trillions.

JBizNews Desk — Markets & Technology

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