JERUSALEM (VINnews) – Prominent Israeli political analyst Amit Segal urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday to urgently separate from U.S. President Donald Trump, warning that Trump’s push for agreements with Iran could undermine Israel’s security interests in Lebanon.

In an analysis published Monday, Segal argued that Netanyahu’s close alignment with Trump — once seen as a political boon — now poses significant risks as the U.S. administration advances diplomacy that could constrain Israeli operations against Hezbollah.

“Out of necessity and ambition, Netanyahu hitched his cart to Trump’s — and now, with Trump driving headlong toward the cliff, he has to figure out how to unhitch before they both go over,” Segal wrote.

The shift marks a sharp change from expectations just weeks ago, when Trump was anticipated to bolster Netanyahu’s political standing through a potential pre-election visit, endorsements and achievements on Gaza and Iran. Those prospects now appear uncertain, Segal noted, amid questions over a possible pardon and broader U.S. policy shifts. The dynamics could also influence President Isaac Herzog’s considerations.

Netanyahu faces what Segal described as the greatest challenge in his three decades of navigating U.S. presidents. Unlike his 2015 address to Congress opposing then-President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, current political realities limit such maneuvers. A Republican-controlled House is unlikely to challenge Trump, and Democratic leaders show little inclination to support Netanyahu.

“Netanyahu’s real problem is less a bad ceasefire in Iran than the continued fire from Lebanon,” Segal wrote, citing a senior Israeli cabinet minister: “Iran is Trump’s problem, and it is his right to go there and make a deal — but Lebanon is ours.”

Tensions escalated over the weekend when Hezbollah fired on northern Israel, violating a recent ceasefire, prompting Israeli strikes on a Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut’s Dahieh suburb. Trump reportedly reacted sharply, questioning Israel’s actions for the second consecutive week and criticizing Netanyahu for lacking discretion.

Segal outlined two possibilities for Hezbollah’s breach: either an independent rejection of the deal, deemed unlikely, or an Iranian-orchestrated move to corner Israel. Striking back risks alienating Trump, while restraint could entrench Hezbollah’s ability to attack without consequences in Beirut. The analyst suggested this aligns with Iranian efforts — potentially with U.S. acquiescence — to restore pre-Oct. 7, 2023, realities in Lebanon.

Details of the Lebanon agreement remain unclear, with possibilities ranging from a fragile ceasefire prone to tit-for-tat exchanges to demands for full Israeli withdrawal from security zones. Defense Minister Israel Katz has rejected the latter, stating that Israel Defense Forces will remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza without a time limit.

Segal concluded that Netanyahu’s only viable path is to stand firm against U.S. pressure on Lebanon.

“This is our war, forced upon us, and we must not accept the Iranian equation — even at the cost of a sharp confrontation with the president of the United States,” the cabinet minister told Segal. Israel cannot allow its security to be dictated from Washington, he added.

Such a stance could enable Netanyahu to rebrand politically, shifting from Trump ally to resolute opponent — a move that might test but ultimately preserve his leadership, Segal suggested.