Tensions between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu are escalating, and Israeli officials fear that US pressure for a ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon could develop into a dangerous security, political, and diplomatic crisis.

A Netanyahu associate has revealed what is happening behind the scenes. According to a report by Ben Caspit in Al-Monitor, Netanyahu has signaled to Washington that he will not yield to President Trump’s pressure to halt military operations in southern Lebanon. Nevertheless, by Friday afternoon, Washington announced that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah had gone into effect.

Netanyahu’s silence following the announcement underscored the difficult position he now faces—caught between growing pressure from the United States and mounting political pressure at home, a senior Israeli political source said.

Recent developments come against the backdrop of unprecedented tensions between Trump and Netanyahu. Both Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance publicly criticized the Israeli prime minister over the military operation in southern Lebanon and called on him to end it.

Even so, just hours before the latest escalation, Trump unexpectedly extended what appeared to be an olive branch to Netanyahu, saying he would “most likely” support the Israeli leader’s reelection bid, though he stopped short of offering unequivocal backing.

“I’d have to see who’s running, but I like Bibi very much,” Trump told Israel’s Kan News in a phone interview Thursday. “I’d most likely support him.”

For Netanyahu’s supporters, the comment provided little reassurance. They see it as further evidence that Trump has turned against the Israeli leader whom he joined in striking Iran less than three months ago.

“Trump is taking Netanyahu down,” one of Netanyahu’s aides told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We are witnessing an unimaginable, hair-raising development.”

“Israeli public opinion could turn against Netanyahu just as Trump has,” the senior Israeli political source said. “Israelis are currently in shock, trying to absorb Trump’s U-turn and hoping it is only a temporary malfunction, but things will never be the same again.”

Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by Israeli strikes since October 8, 2023, when it joined Hamas in the conflict. In recent months, however, the organization has shifted to more lethal tactics, including the use of explosive drones against Israeli soldiers and border communities.

“Netanyahu knows that if Trump imposes another ceasefire and demands that Israel withdraw from Lebanon, he can say goodbye to the election,” the source said. “He won’t be able to defend such a move before his Likud base and right-wing voters on the eve of the election.”

The source acknowledged that a US ceasefire would likely cause a sharp drop in Netanyahu’s support in the polls, with elections expected to take place in Israel at the end of October.

“Before we know it, Trump will demand an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon,” the source said. “As far as Trump is concerned, the war is over. He feels he has been used too much for Israel’s security interests, and now it is time to think about America’s interests. We’ll pay the price for that, and it will be expensive.”

“Netanyahu has no assets left. He is bankrupt. He counted on total victory but ended up with surrender on all three fronts—Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran. He also counted on Trump’s continued embrace, and that too is falling apart.”

“Going into an election without Trump is like going into battle without a bulletproof vest,” the source added. “In the end, Netanyahu may decide that a confrontation with Trump will restore his standing on the Israeli right as the only leader capable of saying ‘no’ to an American president.”

The source noted that in 2022, while serving as opposition leader, Netanyahu said that the most important quality of an Israeli prime minister is the ability to say “no” to an American president. Without that ability, he argued, it is impossible to lead the country.

(YWN Israel Desk—Jerusalem)