Political analyst Amit Segal says the next Israeli election could dramatically reshape the chareidi political landscape, outlining two sharply different scenarios—one in which the chareidi parties suffer a historic decline and another in which internal realignment could ultimately strengthen their electoral standing.

Writing in his weekly column in Yisroel Hayom, Segal argues that the greatest risk facing the chareidi parties is a significant drop in voter turnout. If fewer chareidi voters head to the polls than in previous elections, he says, the parties could experience what he describes as a “historic collapse” in political representation.

According to Segal, one of the key reasons the right-wing bloc has consistently outperformed polling projections is the exceptionally high participation rate among chareidi voters. “Take a sky-high voter turnout, multiply it by the highest natural population growth in the Western world, and you’ve gained another two Knesset seats,” he wrote.

He noted that the chareidi parties won the equivalent of 17.5 seats in the last election, which ultimately became 18 seats through the Bader-Ofer surplus-vote agreement. Current polls, however, generally project the parties at around 16 seats. Under ordinary circumstances, Segal wrote, many observers would expect those numbers to rise on Election Day—”unless this time the surprise works in the opposite direction.”

Segal said politicians, journalists, and influential figures within the chareidi community have begun expressing concern that turnout could fall sharply. He attributed that possibility to widespread disappointment with the current leadership, writing that many voters are frustrated with representatives “most of whom have been around since the previous millennium.” He added that many in the community blame their elected officials for the sanctions imposed on bnei yeshivah and the arrests of draft evaders, believing they “failed badly during the outgoing term.”

He also argued that the recent legislative push by the chareidi parties has been widely misunderstood. “The legislative blitz described in the general media as chareidi greed and hubris is actually more of a frantic race by Shas and United Torah Judaism to prove to their voters that they are at least doing something,” he wrote. Segal further claimed that “this is also the reason the establishment Agudas Yisrael initiated the massive disruptions on Israel’s highways.”

At the same time, Segal presented a very different possibility. Rather than signaling political weakness, he suggested that the recent cooperation between Agudas Yisrael and the Peleg Yerushalmi could indicate that Agudas Yisrael and Degel HaTorah may ultimately contest the next election on separate tickets.

To support that theory, Segal cited Yated Ne’eman editor Aryeh Zisman, who has suggested that recent political developments may point toward a split between the Litvishe Degel HaTorah faction and the chassidic Agudas Yisrael faction.

Segal concluded that an independent Agudas Yisrael list could potentially clear the electoral threshold if it succeeds in attracting support from Peleg Yerushalmi voters, many of whom have traditionally boycotted elections. “The mutual hatred will drive everyone to the ballot boxes, recreating the 1988 election,” he wrote, noting that when Degel HaTorah and Agudas Yisrael ran separately that year, they collectively nearly doubled their previous vote total and established the chareidi public as a major political force for the first time.