A leading Israeli expert on Iran believes the Islamic Republic may be heading toward another major wave of anti-government protests, arguing that the regime has steadily lost legitimacy in the eyes of many Iranians and could eventually face collapse.

Speaking in an interview with Israel’s 103FM radio, Dr. Tamar Eilam Gindin, an Iran expert at the Ezri Center at the University of Haifa, said she believes the Iranian public will return to the streets despite the regime’s harsh crackdown on previous demonstrations. She noted that while small protests continue regularly, four major Iranian banks were shut down for most of last week, leaving many people without access to ATMs or banking apps.

Eilam Gindin argued that Iran’s protest movements are fundamentally about human rights rather than economic hardship. While economic grievances often spark demonstrations, she said the broader struggle is over basic freedoms and the right to live freely, pointing to the 2022 protests following the death of Mahsa Amini as an example. In her view, Iran experiences a major protest wave every two to three years, and the regime has lost its legitimacy among much of the population.

Addressing the recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, Eilam Gindin said neither side appears eager to return to full-scale war, but neither wants to appear weak. She described the situation as evolving into a war of attrition in which both sides are testing each other’s limits, adding that issues of honor and prestige continue to complicate negotiations.

She also questioned who is truly leading Iran today. Eilam Gindin said many senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed during Iran’s two recent wars. She added that Gen. Ahmad Vahidi was recalled from retirement at the start of the war to replace his predecessor, but said he has largely remained out of public view and questioned whether those identified as members of the IRGC are all taking direction from the current leadership.

According to Eilam Gindin, Iran’s leadership is seeking to prolong negotiations rather than reach a lasting agreement. She noted that Iranian officials themselves have said that if sanctions relief brings additional funds into the country, some of that money would be invested in Iran’s missile program.

She also expressed skepticism about the durability of the Israel-Lebanon agreement, arguing that Hezbollah could violate the deal if directed to do so by Tehran, allowing blame to shift between the sides. Finally, she claimed that despite Iran’s severe domestic crises—including water shortages, electricity shortages, and other economic challenges—the Islamic Republic transferred $1 billion in Bitcoin to Hezbollah during 2025, demonstrating that it continues to prioritize support for its regional proxies.

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